3 Arch St · Danbury, CT 06811

$599,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,556 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1951 Est $626k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Multi-Family Two 2-bedroom and one 1-bedroom apartment Much more. .. . $980/month, lease, security, references Trash removal, Water, Sewer included

Key facts

• Built 1951
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $599k).
• Recommended offer: $581k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.6% in Danbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in CT, #3,379 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Danbury School District (urban): math 19% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #131 of 153 in CT (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $6,861/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 551% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $581,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.17%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $626,220
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Smith St	0.24mi	5/2.5	2,520 (-1%)	16mo	$575,000	$228	71
94 Franklin St	0.23mi	5/3.0	2,690 (+5%)	18mo	$660,000	$245	66
5 Hoyt St	0.27mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,736 (+7%)	5mo	$575,000	$210	62
20 Robinson Ave	0.30mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,655 (+4%)	21mo	$699,000	$263	56
39 Balmforth Ave	0.65mi	5/2.0	2,363 (-8%)	3mo	$637,000	$270	50
14 Summit St	0.74mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,689 (+5%)	6mo	$695,500	$259	47
32 Spring St	0.70mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,174 (-15%)	7mo	$520,000	$239	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-6,549
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $110,897
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06811

• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 21.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,861 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$608 /mo · $7,302/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,441
• Net cashflow: $1,421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,062

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,760	-5% $1,590	+0% $1,421	+5% $1,251	+10% $1,082
Rent	-10% $879	-5% $1,150	+0% $1,421	+5% $1,692	+10% $1,963
Rate	-1.0pp $1,723	-0.5pp $1,573	base $1,421	+0.5pp $1,266	+1.0pp $1,108

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,722
1× unit	1	1	$2,140
Total (3 units)			$6,861

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Blackstone Ct Danbury, CT	4.0	3.5	3491	$5,500	$1.58	45d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $599,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $599,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $599,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $599,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $599,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $599,000 Active 156-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,302 · $608/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,060 · $838/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,758/yr (+$230/mo · 37.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $82,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$7,302
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,587
• − Management: −$6,587
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable income: $7,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $15,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Danbury School District
• NCES district ID: 0901020
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $65,793
• Composite: 23.93/100
• National rank: #7784
• State rank: #131 of 153 in CT

Livability — Danbury

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Danbury, CT
• County: Fairfield County · 765,532 people
• City population: 87,061
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• Population (ZIP): 31,228
• Household income: $104,640
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Black 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -361.68%
• Current HPI: 258.6639
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $599,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $7,302 · +14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.