12910 Cattle Rustler Rd · Mustang Ridge, TX 78610

$290,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $174/sqft · 17% below area Est $350k · 17% under $57/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW COMMUNITY! NOW SELLING. Images representative of plan only and may vary when built. The Yellowstone II is a beautifully designed single-story home that masterfully maximizes its 1,670 square feet to accommodate 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. This layout is a dream for those who love to host, as the home's heart features an oversized kitchen island that stays completely open to the dining and family rooms. The kitchen itself is a blend of style and high-end function, boasting elegant quartz countertops, a timeless tile backsplash, and premium stainless steel appliances that make every meal feel special. Privacy is at the forefront of the Yellowstone II’s design. The main bedroom is a

Key facts

• Large walk-in shower
• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OVERSIZED KITCHEN ISLAND
• ELEGANT QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• TIMELESS TILE BACKSPLASH
• LARGE WALK-IN SHOWER
• EXPANSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPLIT-WING CONFIGURATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Frontier) with monthly fee of $57; HOA covers common area maintenance; Community amenities include common grounds, playground, park, pool, sport courts, street lights, sidewalks and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage facing front; Two covered parking spaces (garage)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available and connected; Water available (private); Private sewer (connected); Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story new construction; Built by D.R. Horton; Southeast-facing; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof; Radiant barrier; New construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered front porch and patio; Fenced backyard; Sprinklers in front, rear and side with rain sensor; Landscaped yard with small trees; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust/vented fan; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz countertops
• Bedrooms: Four main-level bedrooms; Main level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Double vanity in bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Entrance foyer; Recessed lighting; Smart home features; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Walk-in closets; Double pane vinyl windows with screens
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.3% in Mustang Ridge — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#854 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1006 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,301 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.13%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,396
• List price: $290,990
• Delta: -16.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8562 Old Lockhart Hwy	0.25mi	4/2.5	1,848 (+11%)	20mo	$365,000	$198	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-71,561
• Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-110,642
• Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1006
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$57
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,618

Max offer price $250,446

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-180	+0% $-280	+5% $-381	+10% $-481
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-370	+0% $-280	+5% $-191	+10% $-101
Rate	-1.0pp $-134	-0.5pp $-206	base $-280	+0.5pp $-356	+1.0pp $-432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,748
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12104 Douglas Fir Cir Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$2,100	$1.65	19d	1	1.14mi
12102 Douglas Fir Cir Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,200	$1.50	3d	1	1.15mi
12309 Mustang Mesa Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,790	$1.14	17d	1	1.30mi
13405 Grays Peak Path Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,199	$1.37	3d	1	1.33mi
13405 Grays Peak Path Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	45d	1	1.34mi
6915 Tiznow Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$2,300	$1.25	3d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $57 · $684/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $290,990 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,990 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,990 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,990 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,990 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,990 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,990 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,990 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,990 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,990 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,990 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,990 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,990 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,990 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $290,990 1991-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $286,990 Active 1991-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$4,365
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,172
• − Management: −$2,172
• − HOA: −$684
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$8,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,030
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mustang Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #854
• US rank: #15380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mustang Ridge, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $290,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $286,990 Unlock MLS