1404 Skyline Dr · Johnson City, TN 37604

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1935 0.38 ac lot Est $322k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in a central Johnson City location. Primary bedroom and bath on the main level, a side room that would make a great office or hobby/craft room, and a gorgeous over sized screened in porch make this a must see! Covered front porch and a huge detached garage with space above for a man-cave or storage means there is room for everyone. Home is being sold AS IS. All herein deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer/Buyer's agent to verify.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Detached garage
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• CENTRAL JOHNSON CITY LOCATION
• OVER SIZED SCREENED IN PORCH
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SPACE ABOVE FOR MAN-CAVE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Landscaping maintained by association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; Two levels; Residential property; Zoned R-4
• Construction: Frame and plaster construction
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Screened porch; Back yard fencing; Metal roof; Level lot; 110 x 150 lot dimensions; Garage(s) and storage structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Pantry; Double-pane windows; Window treatments

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Johnson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#8 in TN, #3,349 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Johnson City (urban): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #9 of 139 in TN (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #75 of 952 statewide, top 8%, 522 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Bell Middle School (math 43% / reading 38%, grade F, #42 of 333 statewide, top 13%, 898 students, 0% FRL); Science Hill High School (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #13 of 332 statewide, top 4%, 2,401 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 44% district-wide (44 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,155 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (437 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $225k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $185,017 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.85%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,168
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
818 Guaranda Dr #202	0.47mi	3/2.0	2,078 (-1%)	1mo	$610,000	$294	72
1721 Skyline Dr #303	0.35mi	3/3.0	2,112 (+1%)	10mo	$285,000	$135	65
604 Willowood Dr. Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,987 (-5%)	4mo	$330,000	$166	48
1804 Indian Ridge Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,799 (-14%)	24mo	$270,000	$150	34
1022 Knob Creek Rd. Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,821 (-13%)	16mo	$280,000	$154	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,086
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-32,078
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37604

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,088/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,727

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $161	+0% $97	+5% $34	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $24	+0% $97	+5% $170	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $155	base $97	+0.5pp $39	+1.0pp $-20

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 Johnson Ave Johnson City, TN	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	22d	1	0.69mi
700 Antioch Rd Johnson City, TN	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.36mi
2802 W Walnut St #5 Johnson City, TN	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	1.36mi
2802 W Walnut St #6 Johnson City, TN	2.0	3.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-05-28
   listed $225,000 Active
5. 2011-10-25
   soldstatus $135,900
6. 2008-06-16
   soldstatus $119,900
7. 1981-06-15
   soldstatus $23,500
8. 1981-06-01
   soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,088 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$42/mo · 46.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,088
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,712
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$651
• After-tax cash flow: $1,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnson City
• NCES district ID: 4702130
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,514
• Composite: 38.69/100
• National rank: #4143
• State rank: #9 of 139 in TN

Livability — Johnson City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #3349

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson City, TN
• County: Washington County · 129,006 people
• City population: 99,926
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• Population (ZIP): 39,097
• Household income: $52,345
• Rent vs Own: 49.7% rent · 50.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2254.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,816 people
• By 2030: 135,823 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 140,897 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 145,073 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 156,386 · +17.7%
• By 2100: 159,893 · +20.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.6% · R 69.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+36.2 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+38.5 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.73%
• Current HPI: 277.1137
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Johnson City, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+703.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $225,000 TVRMLS
• 2011-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $135,900 Public Records
• 2008-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $119,900 Public Records
• 1981-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records
• 1981-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,088 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.