194 Cherry Dr · Lexington, NC 27292

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $235k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute home on private road in Davidson County! Featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 large bathroom, 3 sectioned outbuilding and nice front porch. Home is concrete except the addition. Addition was fully permitted with the county. Seller uses window units and the home stays cool! Bring your offers, sellers are motivated!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Large backyard
• New hot water heater

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($337/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Davidson County Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #62 of 178 in NC (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $145k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,331 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,008
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
194 Cherry Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,088 (0%)	23mo	$145,000	$133	81
2389 Greensboro Street Ext	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-2%)	9mo	$230,000	$216	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-28,826
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-31,767
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27292

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $510/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,308

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $78	+0% $28	+5% $-21	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-25	+0% $28	+5% $81	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $73	base $28	+0.5pp $-17	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
154 Hill Everhart Rd Lexington, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,100	$1.34	16d	4	0.99mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 486-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $175,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $510 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$925/yr (+$77/mo · 181.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$510
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$657
• After-tax cash flow: $994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701140
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,696
• Composite: 42.76/100
• National rank: #3157
• State rank: #62 of 178 in NC

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #6051

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Davidson County · 129,088 people
• City population: 79,578
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• Population (ZIP): 40,311
• Household income: $57,264
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1001.0

Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 167,156 people
• By 2030: 167,216 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 164,524 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 157,229 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 138,084 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 112,729 · -32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.79%
• Current HPI: 267.074
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 2024-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-31 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Triad MLS
• 2024-07-23 Pending — Triad MLS
• 2024-06-26 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2024-06-21 Listed $139,900 Triad MLS
• 2024-06-18 Coming Soon $139,900 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $510 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.