531 Looking Glass Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$97,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2013 6,969 sqft lot $162/sqft · 60% above area $135/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming and homey 1-bedroom, 1-bath cottage situated on 2 adjoining lots, offering plenty of space and ample parking. The perfect getaway for relaxing weekends or year-round enjoyment! Located in River Ridge subdivision, this property includes access to fantastic community amenities such as a golf course, swimming pool, multiple parks, boat ramp, and clubhouse. Enjoy the convenience and charm of a golf cart community with endless opportunities for recreation and leisure.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• 2 adjoining lots
• Multiple parks

Tags

• 1 BEDROOM
• 1 BATH
• 2 ADJOINING LOTS
• GOLF COURSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• MULTIPLE PARKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: River Ridge; Zoning: R2; Directions available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $1,620 (about $135/month)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation; Built area above grade: 600
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio/porch; Storage structure; Lake privileges; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Ceiling fans for cooling; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $408 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lacrosse Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 360 students, 89% FRL); Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 54% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($671 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,545 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.03%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,790
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: 59.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Lumber Trl	0.10mi	1/1.0	600 (0%)	13mo	$55,000	$92	85
421 Happy Trl	0.20mi	1/1.0	638 (+6%)	1mo	$27,500	$43	79
7 Iowa Trl	0.44mi	2/1.0 (+1)	552 (-8%)	6mo	$50,000	$91	56
30 Haw Haw Trl	0.32mi	2/1.0 (+1)	676 (+13%)	10mo	$69,000	$102	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $29,927
• Equity at exit: $35,254

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $80,700
• Equity at exit: $48,552

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$121 /mo · $1,455/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$135
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $408

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $135 · $1,620/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $97,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $97,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-05-09
   listed $97,000 Active 476-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$1,455
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − HOA: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $3,668
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$880
• After-tax cash flow: $4,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — SPLLAR
• 2026-05-09 Listed $97,000 SPLLAR

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $34 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.