104 #14 Dr Unit Chelsea Dr 14 · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$90,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 938 sqft · Condo · 208 Days on market

Built 1980 Good condition $96/sqft · 8% below area Est $98k · 8% under $335/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy lake life, free ATV/UTV trails, hiking, biking, tennis, pickleball, golf (two golf courses plus a mini golf course), swimming pools, bowling, great restaurants, festivals and more in and around Fairfield Bay and the Greers Ferry Lake area. This 2 bedroom, 1 & 1/2 bath condo has new HVAC, new water lines (to prevent winter freeze), and comes turn key! All furniture, fuirnishings and appliances included. Built in bunk beds in one bedroom with full sized mattresses. This is a highly sought after end unit so no shared wall on that side. Just move in and make it your forever home or your lake home.

Key facts

• Tennis
• Golf
• Pickleball

Tags

• FREE ATVUTV TRAILS
• HIKING
• BIKING
• TENNIS
• PICKLEBALL
• GOLF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $193 of equity ($622 loan paydown + $-429 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 208 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 208 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.50%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $97,776
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -7.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Hillview Dr	0.65mi	2/1.5	1,033 (+10%)	18mo	$25,000	$24	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $21,690
• Equity at exit: $24,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $63,020
• Equity at exit: $27,217

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$335
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $335 · $4,020/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 208 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 207 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 206 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 205 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 204 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 198 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 197 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 189 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 188 DOM
17. 2026-04-27
    price $90,000 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Enjoy lake life, free ATV/UTV trails, hiking, biking, tennis, pickleball, golf (two golf courses plus a mini golf course), swimming pools, bowling, great restaurants, festivals and more in and around Fairfield Bay and the Greers Ferry Lake area. This 2 bedroom, 1 & 1/2 bath condo has new HVAC, new water lines (to prevent winter freeze), and comes turn key! All furniture, fuirnishings and appliances included. Built in bunk beds in one bedroom with full sized mattresses. This is a highly sought after end unit so no shared wall on that side. Just move in and make it your forever home or your lake home.

18. 2025-11-27
    price $97,500 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Enjoy lake life, free ATV/UTV trails, hiking, biking, tennis, pickleball, golf (two golf courses plus a mini golf course), swimming pools, bowling, great restaurants, festivals and more in and around Fairfield Bay and the Greers Ferry Lake area. This 2 bedroom, 1 & 1/2 bath condo has new HVAC, new water lines (to prevent winter freeze), and comes turn key! All furniture, fuirnishings and appliances included. Built in bunk beds in one bedroom with full sized mattresses. This is a highly sought after end unit so no shared wall on that side. Just move in and make it your forever home or your lake home.

19. 2025-11-21
    listed $95,000 New Listing 612-char remark

    Show marketing remark (612 chars)

    Enjoy lake life, free ATV/UTV trails, hiking, biking, tennis, pickleball, golf (two golf courses plus a mini golf course), swimming pools, bowling, great restaurants, festivals and more in and around Fairfield Bay and the Greers Ferry Lake area. This 2 bedroom, 1 & 1/2 bath condo has new HVAC, new water lines (to prevent winter freeze), and comes turn key! All furniture, fuirnishings and appliances included. Built in bunk beds in one bedroom with full sized mattresses. This is a highly sought after end unit so no shared wall on that side. Just move in and make it your forever home or your lake home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,661
• − Management: −$1,661
• − HOA: −$4,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$950
• After-tax cash flow: $3,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready condo is in good condition with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixture — Improves curb appeal and functionality
• Both Replace window coverings — Enhances interior aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixture — Improves curb appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Replace window coverings — Enhances interior aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $90,000 CARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $97,500 CARMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $95,000 CARMLS