16 Holly Ct · Estell Manor, NJ 08330

$122,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · Manufactured · 139 Days on market

Built 1986 $94/sqft · 39% below area Est $200k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after neighborhood of The Oaks of Weymouth. With its inviting curb appeal and charming design, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. The spacious master suite is a true highlight, featuring large windows that flood the room with natural light, a generous walk-in closet, and a luxurious en-suite bathroom with a soaking tub and separate shower. It’s your own private retreat. The open-concept living and dining areas create a seamless flow for entertaining, while the well-appointed kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a cozy breakfast nook. The second bedroom is perfect for guests or a home office, with easy access to the second full bath. The Oaks of Weymouth is a beautiful, tranquil community with tree-lined streets and friendly neighbors. Enjoy all the community center has to offer including swimming pool, tennis, pickleball, cards, billiards, and even line dancing in the community clubhouse! Don’t miss out on this gem! Schedule your showing today and make this home yours

Key facts

• Master suite
• Walk-in closet
• Soaking tub

Tags

• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• SOAKING TUB
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 6.1% in Estell Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#414 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Weymouth Township School District (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #351 of 612 in NJ (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($847 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $107,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.16%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,659
• List price: $122,500
• Delta: -38.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Cedar Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,350 (+4%)	12mo	$199,000	$147	81
8 Walnut Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-8%)	18mo	$212,000	$177	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.81×
• Total profit: $130,756
• Equity at exit: $110,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 44.9%
• Equity multiple: 10.76×
• Total profit: $334,793
• Equity at exit: $237,991

Cash invested: $34,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$642
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$153 /mo · $1,838/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $1,005

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,072

Max offer price $122,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,625
• Closing costs: $3,675
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $122,500 Pending 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,500 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,500 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $122,500 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $122,500 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $122,500 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   pricedays on market $122,500 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $110,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $110,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-01-20
    listed $122,500 Active 1095-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1095 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after neighborhood of The Oaks of Weymouth. With its inviting curb appeal and charming design, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. The spacious master suite is a true highlight, featuring large windows that flood the room with natural light, a generous walk-in closet, and a luxurious en-suite bathroom with a soaking tub and separate shower. It’s your own private retreat. The open-concept living and dining areas create a seamless flow for entertaining, while the well-appointed kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a cozy breakfast nook. The second bedroom is perfect for guests or a home office, with easy access to the second full bath. The Oaks of Weymouth is a beautiful, tranquil community with tree-lined streets and friendly neighbors. Enjoy all the community center has to offer including swimming pool, tennis, pickleball, cards, billiards, and even line dancing in the community clubhouse! Don’t miss out on this gem! Schedule your showing today and make this home yours

11. 2026-01-01
    listed $122,500 Active 1096-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in the highly sought-after neighborhood of The Oaks of Weymouth. With its inviting curb appeal and charming design, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort and style. The spacious master suite is a true highlight, featuring large windows that flood the room with natural light, a generous walk-in closet, and a luxurious en-suite bathroom with a soaking tub and separate shower. It’s your own private retreat. The open-concept living and dining areas create a seamless flow for entertaining, while the well-appointed kitchen offers ample cabinet space and a cozy breakfast nook. The second bedroom is perfect for guests or a home office, with easy access to the second full bath. The Oaks of Weymouth is a beautiful, tranquil community with tree-lined streets and friendly neighbors. Enjoy all the community center has to offer including swimming pool, tennis, pickleball, cards, billiards, and even line dancing in the community clubhouse! Don’t miss out on this gem! Schedule your showing today and make this home yours.

12. 2025-12-31
    historical
13. 2025-11-27
    price $122,900
14. 2025-10-21
    price $129,500
15. 2025-09-30
    status Active
16. 2025-05-20
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2025-02-23
    listed $135,000 Active
18. 2023-06-07
    soldstatus $87,000 Sold
19. 2023-04-26
    historical Under Contract
20. 2023-02-27
    listed $95,000 Active
21. 2003-12-10
    soldstatus $70,000
22. 2003-11-10
    historical
23. 2003-08-11
    listed $79,000
24. 2000-09-27
    soldstatus $64,000
25. 2000-08-04
    historical
26. 2000-05-23
    listed $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,862
• − Property taxes: −$1,838
• − Insurance: −$612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − Depreciation: −$3,564
• Taxable income: $10,749
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,580
• After-tax cash flow: $9,479/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weymouth Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3417850
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,908
• Composite: 47.23/100
• National rank: #5081
• State rank: #351 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Estell Manor

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #414
• US rank: #14535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• City population: 1,269
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+91.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-20 Listed $122,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $122,500 SJSRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $122,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $129,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-30 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-20 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-02-23 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-07 Sold (MLS) $87,000 SJSRMLS
• 2023-04-26 Contingent — SJSRMLS
• 2023-02-27 Listed $95,000 SJSRMLS
• 2003-12-10 Sold (MLS) $70,000 SJSRMLS
• 2003-11-10 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2003-08-11 Listed $79,000 SJSRMLS
• 2000-09-27 Sold (MLS) $64,000 SJSRMLS
• 2000-08-04 Listing Removed — SJSRMLS
• 2000-05-23 Listed $64,000 SJSRMLS