7216 E Bobwhite Ct · San Tan Valley, AZ 85143

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2018 6,226 sqft lot $240/sqft · 10% below area Est $344k · 10% under $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELCOME HOME TO this STUNNING, bright and open concept floor plan in coveted QUAIL RUN! METICULOUSLY cared for, this home spares no missed detail. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, an entertainer's kitchen that boasts an ISLAND with granite AND STAINLESS appliances including a GAS STOVE. Whole home water softener and kitchen RO. Smart home light switches/thermostat and garage door opener.PRIVATE backyard with PICTURESQUE views of the Superstition Mountains is PERFECT all year round with a patio, Low maintenance TURF and relaxing hot tub. RV gate perfect for toys! This home is an absolute MUST see!

Key facts

• 6,226 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in San Tan Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#282 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,188 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,471
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -10.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7216 E Bobwhite Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+0%)	0mo	$310,000	$240	100
7046 E Eagle Nest Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+0%)	8mo	$310,000	$240	85
7310 E Cattle Call St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+4%)	0mo	$344,990	$256	71
32044 N Pony Express Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+4%)	2mo	$324,990	$242	64
32030 N Pony Express Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+4%)	9mo	$319,990	$238	59
32084 N Pony Express Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-7%)	2mo	$299,990	$251	58
32098 N Pony Express Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+4%)	8mo	$319,990	$238	58
32016 N Pony Express Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-7%)	8mo	$299,990	$251	56
32226 N Pony Express Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+4%)	7mo	$339,990	$253	54
32204 N Pony Express Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-7%)	3mo	$299,990	$251	54
32254 N Pony Express Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+4%)	8mo	$319,990	$238	53
32176 N Pony Express Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-7%)	5mo	$299,990	$251	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-63,753
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-90,591
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85143

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,046/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,409

Max offer price $289,818

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-21	+0% $-109	+5% $-196	+10% $-284
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-198	+0% $-109	+5% $-19	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $47	-0.5pp $-30	base $-109	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7489 E Cozy Cottage Ln San Tan Valley, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,895	$1.03	44d	1	0.21mi
7242 E Teal Way San Tan Valley, AZ	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,200	$1.37	25d	1	0.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   WELCOME HOME TO this STUNNING, bright and open concept floor plan in coveted QUAIL RUN! METICULOUSLY cared for, this home spares no missed detail. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, an entertainer's kitchen that boasts an ISLAND with granite AND STAINLESS appliances including a GAS STOVE. Whole home water softener and kitchen RO. Smart home light switches/thermostat and garage door opener.PRIVATE backyard with PICTURESQUE views of the Superstition Mountains is PERFECT all year round with a patio, Low maintenance TURF and relaxing hot tub. RV gate perfect for toys! This home is an absolute MUST see!

2. 2026-04-25
   status Active 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   WELCOME HOME TO this STUNNING, bright and open concept floor plan in coveted QUAIL RUN! METICULOUSLY cared for, this home spares no missed detail. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, an entertainer's kitchen that boasts an ISLAND with granite AND STAINLESS appliances including a GAS STOVE. Whole home water softener and kitchen RO. Smart home light switches/thermostat and garage door opener.PRIVATE backyard with PICTURESQUE views of the Superstition Mountains is PERFECT all year round with a patio, Low maintenance TURF and relaxing hot tub. RV gate perfect for toys! This home is an absolute MUST see!

3. 2026-04-07
   status Pending 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   WELCOME HOME TO this STUNNING, bright and open concept floor plan in coveted QUAIL RUN! METICULOUSLY cared for, this home spares no missed detail. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, an entertainer's kitchen that boasts an ISLAND with granite AND STAINLESS appliances including a GAS STOVE. Whole home water softener and kitchen RO. Smart home light switches/thermostat and garage door opener.PRIVATE backyard with PICTURESQUE views of the Superstition Mountains is PERFECT all year round with a patio, Low maintenance TURF and relaxing hot tub. RV gate perfect for toys! This home is an absolute MUST see!

4. 2026-04-01
   listed $309,000 Active 601-char remark

   Show marketing remark (601 chars)

   WELCOME HOME TO this STUNNING, bright and open concept floor plan in coveted QUAIL RUN! METICULOUSLY cared for, this home spares no missed detail. Featuring 3 beds and 2 baths, an entertainer's kitchen that boasts an ISLAND with granite AND STAINLESS appliances including a GAS STOVE. Whole home water softener and kitchen RO. Smart home light switches/thermostat and garage door opener.PRIVATE backyard with PICTURESQUE views of the Superstition Mountains is PERFECT all year round with a patio, Low maintenance TURF and relaxing hot tub. RV gate perfect for toys! This home is an absolute MUST see!

5. 2018-01-19
   soldstatus $7,550,250
6. 2007-05-30
   soldstatus $13,382,400
7. 2005-03-10
   soldstatus $4,387,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,046 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,039 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$993/yr (+$83/mo · 94.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,046
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,181
• − Management: −$2,181
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$6,793
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,630
• After-tax cash flow: $327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — San Tan Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #24192

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Tan Valley, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 95,704
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $93,707
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 351.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 14% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.12%
• Current HPI: 232.6253
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-93.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $309,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $7,550,250 Public Records
• 2007-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $13,382,400 Public Records
• 2005-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $4,387,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,046 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.