20111 Caroline Creek Pl · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$340,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 356 Days on market

Built 2024 5,227 sqft lot Est $330k · at est. $192/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Price Drop!! This is a Short Sale and contingent upon lender approval ~~This lovely home is nestled in the tropical paradise of Southwest Florida, the Savanna Lakes community offers an idyllic lifestyle. This fabulous 5-bedroom, 2 full-bathroom and 1 half bathroom home is designed with both comfort and entertainment in mind. The spacious Great Room seamlessly connects to the dining and kitchen areas, with direct access to a patio—perfect for outdoor relaxation. The upgraded kitchen features a neutral backsplash, enhanced hardware on cabinets and drawers, and premium plumbing fixtures. master bedroom and bathroom on the main level. On the second floor, a versatile loft anchors all bed

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Upgraded kitchen
• Versatile loft

Tags

• SAVANNA LAKES COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• MASTER BEDROOM ON MAIN LEVEL
• VERSATILE LOFT
• IMPACT DOORS AND WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed (call; conditional)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $192; Association covers management, irrigation water, grounds maintenance, sewer, street lights, security, trash and water; Community amenities include fitness center, playground, pool and sidewalks; Gated community with street lights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 covered garage spaces
• Security: Security gate; Gated community; Key card entry; Security guard
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities; Irrigation from lake
• Home design: Two-story property; Faces north
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and stucco; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fence; Security/high-impact doors; Room for pool; Open porch; Porch; Pond on lot; Rectangular lot; Paved road access; South exposure; Has view; Entry level is 1; Resale condition

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Refrigerator; Refrigerator with ice maker; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Walk-in pantry
• Bedrooms: Den
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Breakfast bar; Dual sinks; Combined family and dining room; Kitchen island; Combined living and dining room; Main-level primary bedroom; Pantry; Shower-only bath with separate shower; Cable TV; Walk-in pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-561 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (29.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11233% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,977 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.07%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,682
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11926 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.56mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,174 (-9%)	1mo	$305,000	$140	53
11893 Savanna Lakes Blvd	0.65mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,174 (-9%)	2mo	$299,000	$138	48
19755 Garden Ridge Ct	0.53mi	5/2.5	2,112 (-12%)	11mo	$270,000	$128	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $142,135
• Equity at exit: $306,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $433,539
• Equity at exit: $660,545

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2460
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$472 /mo · $5,659/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-561

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,276

Max offer price $240,977

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-368	-5% $-464	+0% $-561	+5% $-657	+10% $-753
Rent	-10% $-763	-5% $-662	+0% $-561	+5% $-459	+10% $-358
Rate	-1.0pp $-389	-0.5pp $-474	base $-561	+0.5pp $-649	+1.0pp $-738

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20050 Caroline Creek Pl Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,300	$1.22	24d	1	0.07mi
12441 Dakota Ridge Pl Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1885	$2,150	$1.14	24d	1	0.17mi
19972 Green Pasture Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	5.0	2.5	2959	$3,000	$1.01	21d	1	0.19mi
19931 Green Pasture Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,248	$1.24	24d	1	0.21mi
12312 Amber Waves Rd Unit NA Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1941	$2,325	$1.20	24d	1	0.21mi
12312 Amber Waves Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1937	$2,325	$1.20	20d	1	0.21mi
19882 Green Pasture Rd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1942	$2,350	$1.21	24d	1	0.27mi
11621 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,200	$1.01	16d	1	0.30mi
11613 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	5.0	3.0	2451	$2,700	$1.10	16d	1	0.30mi
606 Morningmist Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	1817	$2,295	$1.26	3d	1	0.54mi
11902 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	6.0	3.0	3041	$2,750	$0.90	16d	1	0.64mi
11634 Savanna Lakes Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	5.0	3.0	2451	$2,650	$1.08	21d	1	0.70mi
696 Homestead Rd S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1777	$2,200	$1.24	24d	1	0.78mi
532 Ilaria Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1598	$2,300	$1.44	16d	1	0.81mi
541 Chalet Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1650	$2,400	$1.45	24d	1	0.84mi
437 Reading St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,795	$0.98	2d	1	0.92mi
467 Raymer St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,850	$1.01	11d	1	0.94mi
477 Rayford St Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	1715	$2,000	$1.17	24d	1	0.98mi
418 Pickford Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1937	$2,450	$1.26	24d	1	1.05mi
19525 Fairhill Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,499	$1.01	24d	1	1.09mi
335 Parish Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	3.0	2205	$2,390	$1.08	11d	1	1.15mi
270 Silent Lake Dr Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,895	$1.05	12d	1	1.38mi
10329 Canal Brook Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	4.0	2.5	2462	$2,600	$1.06	24d	1	1.39mi
10601 Crossback Ln Lehigh Acres, FL	5.0	3.0	2634	$2,800	$1.06	24d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 354 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 352 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 348 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $340,000 Active 346 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $340,000 Active 341 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $340,000 Active 340 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $340,000 Active 339 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    price $340,000
11. 2026-01-22
    price $350,000
12. 2025-12-29
    historical $3,000
13. 2025-11-25
    price $374,999
14. 2025-10-02
    price $375,000
15. 2025-07-29
    listed $3,000
16. 2025-07-28
    price $385,000
17. 2025-06-20
    listed $399,000 Active
18. 2023-12-07
    soldstatus $1,045,800
19. 2023-03-31
    soldstatus $4,853,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,659 · $472/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,659 · $472/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,801
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$5,659
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$12,727
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,054
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $340,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $350,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-12-29 Rental Removed $3,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $374,999 FORTMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $375,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed for Rent $3,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $385,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $399,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,045,800 Public Records
• 2023-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $4,853,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+173.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,659 · +125.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.