Plan 1527 Plan · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$247,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 10% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Extra storage space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Open floor plan
• Kitchen island

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• GAS RANGE

🏗️ New construction. The $247,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $251,326.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-706/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 716 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,406 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,326
• List price: $247,995
• Delta: -1.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5114 Harbor Palm Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+6%)	3mo	$260,000	$161	79
5003 Beck Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+6%)	2mo	$245,000	$151	66
2003 Heath Ridge Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-10%)	10mo	$242,000	$176	65
2314 Seabourne Trails Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-10%)	1mo	$235,888	$172	65
5139 Cottage Creek Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,366 (-10%)	9mo	$240,000	$176	64
2134 Beach Bluff Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-10%)	12mo	$240,000	$175	63
2134 Bluegrass Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+6%)	3mo	$279,000	$171	62
4723 Bluestem Prairie Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+2%)	11mo	$295,000	$190	57
4911 Beck Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+6%)	12mo	$250,000	$154	57
5002 Manor Stone Ln	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (+8%)	7mo	$239,999	$145	56
5122 Breezy Parke Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-10%)	10mo	$233,000	$170	53
2507 Ocean Cove Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+6%)	11mo	$254,995	$158	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-50,667
• Equity at exit: $37,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-72,873
• Equity at exit: $21,730

Cash invested: $70,371 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 716
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,124 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,318
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,770/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,199

Max offer price $242,810

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,832
• Closing costs: $7,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5026 Manor Stone Ln Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,781	$1.14	13d	1	0.34mi
2331 Golden Brandy Ln Unit Labs Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,795	$1.35	24d	1	0.48mi
4516 Bartagrass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$3,850	$1.78	44d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,995 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,995 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,995 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,995 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,995 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $247,995 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,995 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $247,995 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $257,995 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,995 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,995 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,995 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,995 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $257,995 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Extra storage space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

15. 2026-05-12
    price $254,995 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Extra storage space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

16. 2026-04-28
    price $264,995 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Extra storage space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

17. 2026-04-15
    price $270,995 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Extra storage space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

18. 2026-04-08
    listed $285,995 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Extra storage space * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * 5-panel interior doors * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Kitchen USB charging port * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Close to family friendly parks * Planned park * Commuter-friendly location * Planned pavilion * Close to popular restaurants * Great shopping nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,078
• − Property taxes: −$3,770
• − Insurance: −$1,257
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,039
• − Management: −$2,039
• − Depreciation: −$7,311
• Taxable loss: −$5,006
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,201
• After-tax cash flow: $495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Rosenberg, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates like a smart thermostat and water heater that can improve both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Tankless water heater — Reduces water heating costs and provides consistent hot water
• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and convenience
• Both Smart lighting system — Saves energy and provides flexible lighting options

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Tankless water heater — Reduces water heating costs and provides consistent hot water ↑
• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and convenience ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — Saves energy and provides flexible lighting options ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $257,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $254,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $264,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $270,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Listed $285,995 Zillow