50 Rock Dove Dr · Lytle, TX 78052

$192,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2004 1.00 ac lot $137/sqft · 40% below area Est $318k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3BD/2BTH, 1,404 sq.ft., brick home on 1 acre in the Dove Mill subdivision w/ open floor plan, breakfast bar in the kitchen, split master suite w/ double vanity and walk-in closet. Lytle schools & no city taxes!

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2004

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment resources available
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Dove Mill (Dove Mill S/D Unit 1)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by CPS Energy; Water: city; Sewer: septic
• Home design: Pre-owned single-family design; Approximately 22 years old
• Construction: Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Brick and siding exterior; Mature trees on property; Lot approximately 1–2 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (11 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with walk-in closet and full bath (12 x 12); Bedroom 2 (10 x 10); Bedroom 3 (9 x 9)
• Flooring: Linoleum flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with tub/shower combination and double vanity (8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: One living area with a combined living/dining layout; Ground level / no steps; Some window coverings remain

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $192k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Lytle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,719 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,492
• List price: $192,000
• Delta: -39.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Mourning Dove	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,562 (+11%)	22mo	$330,000	$211	55
400 Blue Quail	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	5mo	$340,000	$283	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $67,712
• Equity at exit: $123,736

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $191,058
• Equity at exit: $227,057

Cash invested: $53,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,797 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,007
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,218/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $192,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,000
• Closing costs: $5,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $192,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $192,000 Active Option 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $192,000 Active Option 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $192,000 Active Option 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $192,000 Active Option 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $192,000 Active Option 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $192,000 Active Option 27 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $192,000 Active Option 26 DOM
9. 2026-05-05
   listed $192,000 New 270-char remark
10. 2014-01-08
    soldstatus
11. 2014-01-07
    soldstatus 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Charming 3BD/2BTH, 1,404 sq.ft., brick home on 1 acre in the Dove Mill subdivision w/ open floor plan, breakfast bar in the kitchen, split master suite w/ double vanity and walk-in closet. Lytle schools & no city taxes!

12. 2013-12-09
    historical 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Charming 3BD/2BTH, 1,404 sq.ft., brick home on 1 acre in the Dove Mill subdivision w/ open floor plan, breakfast bar in the kitchen, split master suite w/ double vanity and walk-in closet. Lytle schools & no city taxes!

13. 2013-07-17
    listed $134,900 226-char remark

    Show marketing remark (226 chars)

    Charming 3BD/2BTH, 1,404 sq.ft., brick home on 1 acre in the Dove Mill subdivision w/ open floor plan, breakfast bar in the kitchen, split master suite w/ double vanity and walk-in closet. Lytle schools & no city taxes!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,218 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,514 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,295/yr (+$108/mo · 58.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,755
• − Property taxes: −$2,218
• − Insurance: −$960
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,725
• − Management: −$1,725
• − Depreciation: −$5,585
• Taxable loss: −$1,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$337
• After-tax cash flow: $2,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,221

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-27 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-05-05 Listed $192,000 LERA
• 2014-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-01-07 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2013-12-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2013-07-17 Listed $134,900 LERA

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,218 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.