11 Race St · Trenton, NJ 08638

$187,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Townhouse public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1925 1,163 sqft lot Est $137k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! This tenant-occupied property is currently rented for $1,568/month and offers strong rental potential for investors looking to expand their portfolio. The home features a functional layout with comfortable living space and convenient access to local amenities, transportation, and major roadways. Showings will only be granted with proof of funds. Photos are subject to change and may vary due to tenant furniture, personal belongings, and current occupancy. Buyer to perform their own due diligence.

Key facts

• Built 1925
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area listed as 912 (source: assessor); Total below-grade area listed as 0; Year built source: Assessor

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 12.00 x 97.00

Interior

• Kitchen: Standard kitchen (details not specified)
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; Two bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Electric cooling (type listed as Other)
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; Kitchen; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Hot water: Natural gas

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $187k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $187k implies a 253% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,195 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.59%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $136,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Vine St	0.07mi	3/1.0	956 (+5%)	11mo	$54,000	$56	80
123 Vine St	0.15mi	3/2.0	980 (+8%)	2mo	$199,000	$203	75
51 Vine St	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	978 (+7%)	7mo	$105,000	$107	74
82 Vine St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+14%)	10mo	$90,000	$87	65
167 Kirkbride Ave	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	846 (-7%)	11mo	$155,000	$183	63
29 Poplar St	0.60mi	3/1.0	938 (+3%)	7mo	$68,000	$72	62
63 Chase St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	816 (-10%)	14mo	$122,750	$150	61
4 Lansing Aly	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (-14%)	8mo	$40,000	$51	58
229 New Trent	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	990 (+9%)	11mo	$200,000	$202	54
723-725 Indiana Ave	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	924 (+1%)	12mo	$265,000	$287	50
32 Seward Ave	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	850 (-7%)	7mo	$83,000	$98	47
629 Ohio Ave	0.53mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (+14%)	1mo	$252,000	$241	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-276
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $40,155
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08638

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,414/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,489

Max offer price $187,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $515	+0% $462	+5% $409	+10% $356
Rent	-10% $298	-5% $380	+0% $462	+5% $544	+10% $626
Rate	-1.0pp $556	-0.5pp $509	base $462	+0.5pp $413	+1.0pp $364

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
77 Race St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,700	$1.79	21d	1	0.06mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	14d	1	0.40mi
42 Grant St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	14d	1	0.59mi
901 Brunswick Ave #7 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	940	$2,800	$2.98	14d	1	0.60mi
125 Olive St Trenton, NJ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	896	$1,392	$1.55	21d	1	0.71mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	21d	1	0.72mi
202 E Hanover St Unit 5G Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	21d	1	0.82mi
216 E State St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	811	$1,895	$2.34	14d	2	0.86mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	0.90mi
27 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	21d	1	0.98mi
417 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	992	$2,050	$2.07	21d	1	1.06mi
1163 E State St Unit 9 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	775	$1,770	$2.28	21d	1	1.06mi
1165 E State St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	900	$1,749	$1.94	14d	1	1.06mi
416 Klagg Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,300	$2.22	21d	1	1.07mi
339 Tioga St #339 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	864	$1,850	$2.14	21d	1	1.09mi
307 Spring St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	689	$1,750	$2.54	14d	1	1.09mi
307 Spring St Unit 3 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	559	$1,800	$3.22	14d	1	1.09mi
186 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,400	$2.26	5d	1	1.09mi
1001 Pennington Rd Unit 1-2B Ewing Township, NJ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	21d	1	1.12mi
720 Monmouth St Unit 204 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1011	$1,750	$1.73	21d	1	1.26mi
71 Clark St Trenton, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,350	$2.41	14d	4	1.44mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $187,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $187,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $187,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $187,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $187,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $187,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $187,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $187,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $187,000 Active
16. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus $53,000
17. 2020-07-17
    historical
18. 2019-07-16
    listed $44,900 Active
19. 2010-01-11
    historical
20. 2009-06-11
    listed $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,414 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,035 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,621/yr (+$135/mo · 114.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$1,414
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable income: $2,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$634
• After-tax cash flow: $4,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 22,816
• Household income: $66,875
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1185.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 43% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.00%
• Current HPI: 334.5143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.31%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+188.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $187,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-07-16 Listed $44,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-11 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,414 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.