2921 Mckoon Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$94,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,648 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1905 Fair condition 5,800 sqft lot $58/sqft · 46% below area Est $175k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Currently rented month to month, this adorable 4 bedroom 2 bath is new to the market! Located on a quiet street in Deveaux, this home is priced under market value. Front and back porch. Nice size partially fenced in yard. Many possibilities here with this home, come see for yourself.

Key facts

• 5,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1905
• Listed 119 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $632 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.3% vs local median 8.1% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maple Avenue School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 397 students, 72% FRL); Gaskill Preparatory School (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 500 students, 78% FRL); Niagara Falls High School (math 75% / reading 92%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,139 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 86% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $86,359 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.55%
• DSCR: 2.27
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,830
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -45.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3023 Delancey Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+5%)	9mo	$290,000	$168	74
3040 Madison Ave	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,793 (+9%)	2mo	$257,500	$144	69
2863 Macklem Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,451 (-12%)	8mo	$109,999	$76	68
3823 Macklem Ave	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,566 (-5%)	4mo	$272,000	$174	67
914 Vanderbilt Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,707 (+4%)	8mo	$150,000	$88	65
4026 Barton St	0.57mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,645 (-0%)	6mo	$227,000	$138	63
3915 Deveaux St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-11%)	2mo	$120,000	$82	56
2817 10th St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-12%)	10mo	$70,000	$48	56
4214 Washington St	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,773 (+8%)	6mo	$270,000	$152	51
1335 James Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+2%)	10mo	$238,500	$141	51
1307 Niagara Ave	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,536 (-7%)	4mo	$95,000	$62	46
1315 Maple Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,412 (-14%)	3mo	$158,000	$112	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $24,980
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.78×
• Total profit: $73,972
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 15 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $129,900 ($91/sqft)
• Median days on market: 15 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +16.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,682/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $686	-5% $659	+0% $632	+5% $605	+10% $579
Rent	-10% $493	-5% $563	+0% $632	+5% $702	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $656	base $632	+0.5pp $608	+1.0pp $583

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	93d	1	0.14mi
1312 Ontario Ave Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1956	$1,200	$0.61	93d	1	0.67mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	52d	1	1.23mi
2207 Linwood Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1545	$1,795	$1.16	19d	1	1.29mi
1808 Whitney Ave Unit 3 Niagara Falls, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$900	$0.75	93d	1	1.31mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	52d	1	1.40mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	72d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity available and connectedPublic water connectedSewer connected
• Home design: 2-story residenceResale propertyRectangular residential lotCity street frontageLot dimensions approximately 40 x 145
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofStone foundationOriginally existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop drivewayBarbecuePartial fencingOpen porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetVinylVaries
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining roomEat-in kitchenFamily roomFull basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $94,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $94,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $94,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $94,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $94,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $94,900 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $94,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $94,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $94,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $94,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $94,900 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $94,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $94,900 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $94,900 Active 101 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 98 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $94,900 Active 97 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $94,900 Active 96 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $94,900 Active 95 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $94,900 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $94,900 Active 91 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 90 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $94,900 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $94,900 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $94,900 Active 84 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $94,900 Active 83 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $94,900 Active 82 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $94,900 Active 81 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $94,900 Active 80 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $94,900 Active 79 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 78 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $94,900 Active 77 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $94,900 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $94,900 Active 73 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $94,900 Active 72 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $94,900 Active 69 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $94,900 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $94,900 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $94,900 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 64 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $94,900 Active 63 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $94,900 Active 61 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $94,900 Active 60 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $94,900 Active 59 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $94,900 Active 58 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,682 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,682 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$2,682
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $6,540
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,570
• After-tax cash flow: $6,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $41,200–$74,160 screening

This home requires significant exterior and interior repairs, including painting, landscaping, and flooring replacement. With these updates, it can become a move-in-ready property with increased resale and rental value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — roof appears old and damaged
• Major Windows (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — windows appear old and damaged
• Major Electrical (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — electrical panel appears old and damaged
• Major Exterior (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — exterior siding appears old and damaged
• Major Plumbing (roof|hvac|water heater|windows|electrical|plumbing|exterior|other) — plumbing fixtures appear old and damaged

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of wear and tear, potential leaks
• Major siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting and repainting the exterior — Fresh paint can significantly improve curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — New flooring can enhance the home's aesthetic and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Maple Avenue School F NY #1,923/2,108 Nat'l #32,000/41,679 Middle Gaskill Preparatory School F NY #702/729 Nat'l #12,486/14,009 High Niagara Falls High School A NY #409/1,100 Nat'l #817/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 204,149 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity available and connectedPublic water connectedSewer connected
• Home design: 2-story residenceResale propertyRectangular residential lotCity street frontageLot dimensions approximately 40 x 145
• Construction: Vinyl sidingAsphalt roofStone foundationOriginally existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop drivewayBarbecuePartial fencingOpen porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: CarpetVinylVaries
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining roomEat-in kitchenFamily roomFull basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

Price history

+413.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $94,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
• 2009-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,682 · +23.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.