11228 Marlborough Dr · Thonotosassa, FL 33584

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 127 Days on market

Built 1987 1.19 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful Country Living with City Convenience! Welcome home to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on a beautiful 1.19-acre lot in a quiet, dead-end street neighborhood. Built in 1987, this home has been lovingly cared for over the years and is ready for its next chapter. With a little TLC, you can make it truly your own! Enjoy the best of both worlds — peaceful surroundings with easy access to the interstate, shopping, and restaurants just minutes away. The spacious yard offers plenty of room for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or future expansion, and includes a storage shed for tools or hobbies. Whether you’re looking for a first home, investment property, or a tranquil retreat, this property offers endless potential. Don’t miss your opportunity to own over an acre in a desirable, convenient location!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Desirable location
• Storage shed

Tags

• BEAUTIFUL LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• SPACIOUS YARD
• STORAGE SHED
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#673 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $250k implies a 495% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,720
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-26,312
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33584

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,504/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,056

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $281	-5% $210	+0% $139	+5% $68	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $51	+0% $139	+5% $227	+10% $316
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $203	base $139	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $9

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6228 Timmons Rd Unit 6226 Seffner, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	25d	1	0.43mi
5619 Peach Ave Seffner, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,450	$1.73	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Active 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   Peaceful Country Living with City Convenience! Welcome home to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on a beautiful 1.19-acre lot in a quiet, dead-end street neighborhood. Built in 1987, this home has been lovingly cared for over the years and is ready for its next chapter. With a little TLC, you can make it truly your own! Enjoy the best of both worlds — peaceful surroundings with easy access to the interstate, shopping, and restaurants just minutes away. The spacious yard offers plenty of room for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or future expansion, and includes a storage shed for tools or hobbies. Whether you’re looking for a first home, investment property, or a tranquil retreat, this property offers endless potential. Don’t miss your opportunity to own over an acre in a desirable, convenient location!

2. 2026-02-01
   status Pending 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   Peaceful Country Living with City Convenience! Welcome home to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on a beautiful 1.19-acre lot in a quiet, dead-end street neighborhood. Built in 1987, this home has been lovingly cared for over the years and is ready for its next chapter. With a little TLC, you can make it truly your own! Enjoy the best of both worlds — peaceful surroundings with easy access to the interstate, shopping, and restaurants just minutes away. The spacious yard offers plenty of room for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or future expansion, and includes a storage shed for tools or hobbies. Whether you’re looking for a first home, investment property, or a tranquil retreat, this property offers endless potential. Don’t miss your opportunity to own over an acre in a desirable, convenient location!

3. 2025-10-21
   listed $250,000 Active 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   Peaceful Country Living with City Convenience! Welcome home to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on a beautiful 1.19-acre lot in a quiet, dead-end street neighborhood. Built in 1987, this home has been lovingly cared for over the years and is ready for its next chapter. With a little TLC, you can make it truly your own! Enjoy the best of both worlds — peaceful surroundings with easy access to the interstate, shopping, and restaurants just minutes away. The spacious yard offers plenty of room for gardening, outdoor gatherings, or future expansion, and includes a storage shed for tools or hobbies. Whether you’re looking for a first home, investment property, or a tranquil retreat, this property offers endless potential. Don’t miss your opportunity to own over an acre in a desirable, convenient location!

4. 1987-06-01
   soldstatus $42,000
5. 1983-07-01
   soldstatus $20,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,504 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,504 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$2,504
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,143
• − Management: −$2,143
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$2,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$608
• After-tax cash flow: $2,279/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Thonotosassa

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #13914

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thonotosassa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 12,333
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,579
• Household income: $72,267
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 16% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.15%
• Current HPI: 312.894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1101.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,504 · +105.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.