2204 Cedar Path · Riverhead, NY 11901

$530,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,417 sqft · Condo public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2006 $370/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated On 75 Acres Of Park-Like Property With Direct Sound Beach Access, A Convenient Floor Plan And Top Location Make This 2 Bedroom, 2 Bath Townhouse A Must See! All New Hw Floors Downstairs And Carpet Upstairs. Value Priced To Sell Now!

Key facts

• Large soaking tub
• Sliders to back deck
• Clubhouse with gym

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH
• CLUBHOUSE WITH GYM
• WOOD FLOORS
• ENSUITE BATH
• LARGE SOAKING TUB
• SLIDERS TO BACK DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee; Monthly association fee: $370; Association covers common area maintenance, exterior maintenance, pool service, snow removal, trash, and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, landscaping/grounds maintenance, pool, tennis courts, trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with garage door opener (1 garage space)
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Shared sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Condominium; Two stories; Entry level: 2
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Community pool; No waterfront; Frame construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two levels (entry level: 2)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $530k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 4.6% in Riverhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $289k; list at $530k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $530,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.11%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $96,381
• Equity at exit: $79,025

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $319,221
• Equity at exit: $45,825

Cash invested: $148,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,438 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$438 /mo · $5,254/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$370
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,772
• Net cashflow: $2,858

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,820

Max offer price $530,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,158	-5% $3,008	+0% $2,858	+5% $2,708	+10% $2,558
Rent	-10% $2,192	-5% $2,525	+0% $2,858	+5% $3,192	+10% $3,525
Rate	-1.0pp $3,125	-0.5pp $2,993	base $2,858	+0.5pp $2,721	+1.0pp $2,581

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,500
• Closing costs: $15,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Dolphin Way Riverhead, NY	3.0	2.0	1322	$12,000	$9.08	20d	1	0.85mi
13 Linda Ln E Riverhead, NY	3.0	2.0	1544	$4,600	$2.98	5d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $370 · $4,440/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $530,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $530,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $530,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $530,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $530,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 683-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   listed $530,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,254 · $438/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,105 · $592/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,852/yr (+$154/mo · 35.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $101,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,688
• − Property taxes: −$5,254
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,101
• − Management: −$8,101
• − HOA: −$4,440
• − Depreciation: −$15,418
• Taxable income: $27,609
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,626
• After-tax cash flow: $27,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverhead

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #5379

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverhead, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+47.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $530,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $289,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-18 Sold (MLS) $289,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-18 Sold (MLS) $289,000 MLSLI
• 2014-06-26 Pending — MLSLI
• 2013-07-09 Listed $299,000 MLSLI
• 2013-07-08 Listed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $359,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,254 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.