5630 Mesa Loop · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$234,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 2021 2,178 sqft lot $169/sqft · 18% below area Est $286k · 18% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern Comfort & Massive Backyard Potential Experience the best of Granbury in this 2021-built home! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and a chic, open-concept layout, this home feels brand new. The kitchen and dining areas are designed for gathering, while the gated community provides a vacation-like atmosphere with a pool and lake access. Love the outdoors? You'll adore the beautiful, large backyard—a rare find! While the home currently features a 2-car carport, there is plenty of room to build out a full garage. Close to the lake and even closer to the shops and culture of the Historic Square. Don't miss this opportunity for a turnkey lifestyle!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Pool and lake access
• Close to the lake

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• POOL AND LAKE ACCESS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• ROOM TO BUILD GARAGE
• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• CLOSE TO SHOPS AND CULTURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($748/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,467 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,733
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: -17.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5637 Mesa Loop	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,389 (-0%)	1mo	$225,000	$162	97
5518 Cold Water Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+2%)	4mo	$235,000	$165	88
2405 Creek Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,415 (+2%)	2mo	$218,700	$155	84
2607 Austin Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-1%)	2mo	$265,000	$192	74
2306 Creek Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+7%)	3mo	$275,000	$185	72
5609 San Jacinto Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,425 (+2%)	3mo	$259,999	$182	70
2301 Creek Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+10%)	2mo	$279,900	$183	68
5903 Hunterwood Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	3mo	$200,000	$162	66
2718 Austin Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+3%)	3mo	$281,900	$197	65
5845 Black Pine Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+14%)	2mo	$280,000	$176	65
5103 San Marcos Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+11%)	2mo	$288,500	$187	60
2314 Beverly Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+8%)	3mo	$265,000	$176	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-38,025
• Equity at exit: $35,038

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-43,472
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,847/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,016

Max offer price $234,990

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5619 Cold Water Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,090	$1.16	43d	1	0.19mi
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	43d	1	0.27mi
5105 Waterbury Ct Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,300	$1.33	24d	1	0.36mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	2d	1	0.42mi
2500 Houston Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,400	$1.36	4d	1	0.42mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	7d	1	0.54mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,055	$1.42	3d	1	0.55mi
2213 Beverly Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	24d	1	0.72mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	3d	1	0.88mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	7d	1	0.90mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	43d	1	0.93mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	24d	1	1.19mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	21d	1	1.22mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	18d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $234,990 Pending 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,990 Active Option Contract 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,990 Active Option Contract 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,990 Active Option Contract 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $234,990 Active Option Contract 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,990 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,990 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,990 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,990 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $234,990 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,990 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $234,990 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,990 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    price $237,000 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Modern Comfort & Massive Backyard Potential Experience the best of Granbury in this 2021-built home! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and a chic, open-concept layout, this home feels brand new. The kitchen and dining areas are designed for gathering, while the gated community provides a vacation-like atmosphere with a pool and lake access. Love the outdoors? You'll adore the beautiful, large backyard—a rare find! While the home currently features a 2-car carport, there is plenty of room to build out a full garage. Close to the lake and even closer to the shops and culture of the Historic Square. Don't miss this opportunity for a turnkey lifestyle!

15. 2026-04-09
    price $239,900 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Modern Comfort & Massive Backyard Potential Experience the best of Granbury in this 2021-built home! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and a chic, open-concept layout, this home feels brand new. The kitchen and dining areas are designed for gathering, while the gated community provides a vacation-like atmosphere with a pool and lake access. Love the outdoors? You'll adore the beautiful, large backyard—a rare find! While the home currently features a 2-car carport, there is plenty of room to build out a full garage. Close to the lake and even closer to the shops and culture of the Historic Square. Don't miss this opportunity for a turnkey lifestyle!

16. 2026-04-06
    historical
17. 2026-03-10
    listed $245,000 Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Modern Comfort & Massive Backyard Potential Experience the best of Granbury in this 2021-built home! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and a chic, open-concept layout, this home feels brand new. The kitchen and dining areas are designed for gathering, while the gated community provides a vacation-like atmosphere with a pool and lake access. Love the outdoors? You'll adore the beautiful, large backyard—a rare find! While the home currently features a 2-car carport, there is plenty of room to build out a full garage. Close to the lake and even closer to the shops and culture of the Historic Square. Don't miss this opportunity for a turnkey lifestyle!

18. 2026-03-10
    listed $245,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    Modern Comfort & Massive Backyard Potential Experience the best of Granbury in this 2021-built home! Featuring 3 spacious bedrooms and a chic, open-concept layout, this home feels brand new. The kitchen and dining areas are designed for gathering, while the gated community provides a vacation-like atmosphere with a pool and lake access. Love the outdoors? You'll adore the beautiful, large backyard—a rare find! While the home currently features a 2-car carport, there is plenty of room to build out a full garage. Close to the lake and even closer to the shops and culture of the Historic Square. Don't miss this opportunity for a turnkey lifestyle!

19. 2026-01-18
    historical
20. 2025-11-17
    price $245,000
21. 2025-09-28
    price $249,900
22. 2025-09-07
    price $254,900
23. 2025-08-21
    listed $259,900 Active
24. 2023-06-15
    historical
25. 2023-04-29
    listed $260,000 Active
26. 2021-05-28
    soldstatus Sold
27. 2021-05-01
    status Pending
28. 2021-04-26
    listed $199,900 Active
29. 2006-10-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,847 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,454/yr (+$121/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$2,847
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$770
• After-tax cash flow: $1,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Creek, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $237,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $245,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-07 Price Changed $254,900 NTREIS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $259,900 NTREIS
• 2023-06-15 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-04-29 Listed $260,000 NTREIS
• 2021-05-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-05-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-04-26 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2006-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+33.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,847 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.