4442 Twin Lakes Dr · Melbourne, FL 32934

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,049 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1984 9,148 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your light and bright open living area with vinyl flooring throughout with tile in the master bathroom. The dining room features a custom, lighted cabinet to display your favorite keepsakes. The kitchen has ample counter and cabinets with a moveable island. The spacious main bedroom leads to the walk in closet and large stall shower. The front patio is a great spot to enjoy that morning cup of coffee. Each owner owns their own lot. This community consists of 69 units in a circle configuration, perfect for a peaceful walk or bike ride. The pool area and club house are located nearby. The homeowners have numerous activities for those who wish to participate. HOA maintains clubhouse, pool area and common grounds.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Twin Lakes Country Homes Condo Assoc. Inc.; Monthly association fee of $115; Community clubhouse; Off-site management; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-space carport
• Utilities: Private sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Faces north
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Front porch (screened); Shed(s); Few trees on lot; Asphalt road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric dryer hookup; Washer hookup; Laundry area located in carport

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sabal Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 503 students, 69% FRL); Lyndon B. Johnson Middle School (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 610 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 43% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $169k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.27%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-7,848
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $21,993
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32934

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $413/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $382	-5% $335	+0% $287	+5% $239	+10% $191
Rent	-10% $147	-5% $217	+0% $287	+5% $356	+10% $426
Rate	-1.0pp $372	-0.5pp $330	base $287	+0.5pp $243	+1.0pp $198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1703 Blanche Ave Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,650	$1.96	24d	1	0.21mi
3600 Aurora Rd Unit A Melbourne, FL	2.0	1.0	755	$1,850	$2.45	24d	1	0.78mi
1758 Caleb Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	15d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $169,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$990/yr (+$82/mo · 239.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$413
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,693
• − Management: −$1,693
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $751
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$180
• After-tax cash flow: $3,261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Melbourne

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 178,420
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,564
• Household income: $104,369
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 233.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.68%
• Current HPI: 315.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+275.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $169,000 SCMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $169,000 SCMLS
• 2025-01-27 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2024-12-13 Price Changed $179,000 SCMLS
• 2024-07-22 Listed $185,000 SCMLS
• 2019-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 2018-08-01 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2014-04-29 Sold (MLS) $34,900 SCMLS
• 2014-02-03 Listed $34,900 SCMLS
• 2013-06-30 Listed $36,900 SCMLS
• 2013-03-25 Sold (MLS) $35,000 SCMLS
• 2012-06-25 Listed $34,900 SCMLS
• 2012-01-23 Listed $49,500 SCMLS
• 2005-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $92,500 Public Records
• 2005-07-26 Sold (MLS) $92,500 SCMLS
• 2005-05-23 Listed $104,900 SCMLS
• 2003-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $413 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.