3240 Baird Ave · Lakeland, FL 33805

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1999 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Needs TLC. House was cleaned out. Property is being sold as is. Age of big ticket items unknown. * * * This is a limited-service listing - Please see realtor remarks for showing instructions. * * *

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.27 acres (85 x 140); Living area reported as 1,440 square feet; Total acreage: 1/4 to less than 1/2
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Water source: See remarks; Sewer: Other; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Manufactured home (Double wide); One story; Facing east; Property condition: Fixer
• Construction: Construction materials: Other; Other roof; Foundation: Other; Built as a manufactured double wide
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances included: Other
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features (see listing for details); 3 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $479 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Lakeland Elementary School of Choice (math 36% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 644 students, 61% FRL); Sleepy Hill Middle School (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 1,090 students, 66% FRL); Lake Gibson Senior High School (math 16% / reading 38%, grade F, #478 of 667 statewide, top 73%, 2,080 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 164 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.92%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,970
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $30,185
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33805

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,180/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $479

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $516	+0% $479	+5% $443	+10% $406
Rent	-10% $348	-5% $414	+0% $479	+5% $545	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $512	base $479	+0.5pp $446	+1.0pp $412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
321 Queen Mary Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,599	$1.29	4d	1	0.41mi
454 King Edward Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,399	$1.33	4d	1	0.47mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,507	$1.31	5d	17	0.61mi
3939 Golf Village Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,619	$1.84	5d	6	0.66mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	5d	1	0.77mi
408 Bassedena Cir N Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,825	$1.70	25d	1	0.81mi
123 Oconee St Unit 1368863P Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	990	$2,441	$2.47	13d	1	0.96mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	20d	1	0.98mi
1704 Martin L King Jr Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$5,000	$4.76	25d	1	1.10mi
1615 N New York Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,195	$0.92	25d	1	1.20mi
1211 Robert King High Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,625	$1.55	25d	1	1.22mi
721 E Lowell St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,595	$1.23	25d	1	1.27mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	25d	1	1.29mi
617 Lakehurst St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	20d	1	1.29mi
720 Lakehurst St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,750	$1.60	25d	1	1.30mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	16d	1	1.31mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	4d	1	1.35mi
820 W 13th St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	25d	1	1.35mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	15d	1	1.39mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	23d	8	1.41mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	5d	1	1.42mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	15d	2	1.43mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	25d	1	1.43mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	4d	24	1.48mi
3852 Hampton Hills Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1861	$1,950	$1.05	12d	1	1.48mi
1550 Wright Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1139	$1,650	$1.45	23d	1	1.48mi
1846 Masters Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$1,800	$1.21	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,180 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,180 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,180
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,589
• − Management: −$1,589
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$932
• After-tax cash flow: $4,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,751
• Household income: $62,661
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1179.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.44%
• Current HPI: 372.7317
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,180 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.