12 Harbour Ln Unit 4A · Oyster Bay, NY 11771

$369,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Condo · 118 Days on market

Built 1997 $434/sqft · 6% above area Est $350k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move right into this rarely available first-floor 1-bedroom co-op in the highly sought-after Top of the Harbour waterfront community. This bright and beautifully maintained home features an updated kitchen with modern appliances, renovated bathroom with walk-in shower, carpeted bedroom, and attractive flooring throughout. Enjoy your own private patio with seasonal water views—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Ample closet space, updated electric, garage storage, and parking directly in front of the unit add to the convenience. Maintenance includes taxes, heat, water, exterior maintenance, parking, snow removal, and garbage collection, making this an exceptional value. Located just moments from the beach, restaurants, shops, parks, and transportation. First-floor units with water views and private outdoor space in this community are rarely available and highly desirable. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your private showing today before it’s gone.

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• First-floor co-op
• Ample closet space

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR CO-OP
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• PRIVATE PATIO
• SEASONAL WATER VIEWS
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-226/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $366k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#436 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #120 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($336k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $369k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,407 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,670
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: 5.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-60,947
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-54,422
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11771

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,204 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$461 /mo · $5,535/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$673
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,228

Max offer price $366,271

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
75 Maxwell Ave Apt B Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	836	$3,000	$3.59	43d	1	0.37mi
46 Maxwell Ave Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.5	850	$3,300	$3.88	43d	1	0.41mi
21 Audrey Ave Unit D Oyster Bay, NY	1.0	1.0	600	$2,400	$4.00	22d	1	0.45mi
108 South St Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	855	$4,150	$4.85	1d	1	0.45mi
108 South St Unit D Oyster Bay, NY	1.0	1.0	663	$3,150	$4.75	22d	1	0.45mi
75 South St Oyster Bay, NY	2.0	1.0	800	$2,975	$3.72	24d	1	0.51mi
600 Pine Hollow Rd East Norwich, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$3,204	$3.20	1d	27	0.93mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashelectricsnow removalexterior maint.
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,000 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,000 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,000 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,000 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,000 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $369,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,000 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,000 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,000 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-02-20
    listed $369,000 Active 1007-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

    Move right into this rarely available first-floor 1-bedroom co-op in the highly sought-after Top of the Harbour waterfront community. This bright and beautifully maintained home features an updated kitchen with modern appliances, renovated bathroom with walk-in shower, carpeted bedroom, and attractive flooring throughout. Enjoy your own private patio with seasonal water views—perfect for morning coffee or evening relaxation. Ample closet space, updated electric, garage storage, and parking directly in front of the unit add to the convenience. Maintenance includes taxes, heat, water, exterior maintenance, parking, snow removal, and garbage collection, making this an exceptional value. Located just moments from the beach, restaurants, shops, parks, and transportation. First-floor units with water views and private outdoor space in this community are rarely available and highly desirable. Don’t miss this opportunity—schedule your private showing today before it’s gone.

16. 2017-06-29
    soldstatus $199,900 Closed 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Eik Front To Back Lr Dr Open Floor Plan King Size Master Covered Patio Newly Painted And Carpeted Near Beach Train And Town First Floor Unit With Yard Bright And Sunny Maint Includes Taxes Heat Gas Water And Ground Care, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

17. 2017-04-19
    status Under Contract 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Eik Front To Back Lr Dr Open Floor Plan King Size Master Covered Patio Newly Painted And Carpeted Near Beach Train And Town First Floor Unit With Yard Bright And Sunny Maint Includes Taxes Heat Gas Water And Ground Care, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

18. 2017-03-24
    listed $199,900 New 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Eik Front To Back Lr Dr Open Floor Plan King Size Master Covered Patio Newly Painted And Carpeted Near Beach Train And Town First Floor Unit With Yard Bright And Sunny Maint Includes Taxes Heat Gas Water And Ground Care, Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$5,535
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,076
• − Management: −$3,076
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$6,487
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,557
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oyster Bay-East Norwich Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622290
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $100,262
• Composite: 62.11/100
• National rank: #710
• State rank: #120 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oyster Bay

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #436
• US rank: #7650

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oyster Bay, NY
• City population: 10,173
• Population (ZIP): 10,173

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.23%
• Current HPI: 255.4961
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+84.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Listed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-29 Sold (MLS) $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-24 Listed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid