158 Contentnea Dr · Grifton, NC 28530

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,887 sqft · Other public records · 189 Days on market

Built 1992 0.30 ac lot ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This duplex offers 2 bed 1 bath on each side. Both sides have been updated. Each units has stove and refrig. Plumbing updated, moisture barrier, new crawlspace doors. Both sides have tenants. Need to give a days notice to show. No last minute showings. All showings need to be scheduled 24 hours ahead of time.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 189 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Multiple rental units each reporting $800 actual rent

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Duplex (residential income property); One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space / no basement
• Exterior features: Porch; Open lot; City street and state road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Multiple 2-bedroom units (each unit is 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window coverings; Insulated windows; Storm door(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $220 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.5% in Grifton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#444 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: North Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 975 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lenoir County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 189 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 189 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.72%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-12,759
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,756
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28530

• Home prices YoY: -7.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,080/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Charles St Grifton, NC	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,575	$1.20	13d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   price $165,000
3. 2026-03-31
   status Active
4. 2026-03-02
   status Active
5. 2025-11-04
   price $179,000
6. 2025-09-30
   price $199,500
7. 2025-09-04
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,080 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,353 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,080
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$72
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17
• After-tax cash flow: $2,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Grifton

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #16371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grifton, NC
• Population (ZIP): 7,055

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.30%
• Current HPI: 201.1297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $165,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $179,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $199,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $225,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,080 · +52.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.