360 Buttermilk Falls Rd · Warwick, NY 10990

$229,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1955 5.00 ac lot $111/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.5/30.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away in a private Warwick setting, this home offers incredible potential for the right buyer looking to renovate and make it their own. Surrounded by nature and conveniently located near shops, restaurants, wineries, hiking trails, and all that Warwick has to offer, the property combines privacy with accessibility. Making it a great opportunity for investors, contractors, or buyers seeking a project with upside potential. Bring your vision and restore this property to its full charm.

Key facts

• Surrounded by nature
• 5 acre lot
• Built 1955

Tags

• PRIVATE WARWICK SETTING
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank; Utilities: See remarks
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Wood siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $226k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.8% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#282 in NY, #4,514 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Warwick Valley Central School District (town): math 68% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #118 of 590 in NY (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sanfordville Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 794 students, 16% FRL); Warwick Valley Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 1,082 students, 0% FRL); Warwick Valley High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,366 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $160k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,451 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.03%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $681,496
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -66.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Cascade Lake Rd	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,165 (+5%)	9mo	$600,000	$277	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-13,056
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $20,592
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10990

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$629 /mo · $7,542/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,513

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $229,900 Active 495-char remark
2. 1989-06-26
   soldstatus $160,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,542 · $629/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,542 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$7,542
• − Insurance: −$1,816
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,869
• − Management: −$2,869
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $1,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$288
• After-tax cash flow: $4,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warwick Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629970
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $90,288
• Composite: 62.39/100
• National rank: #692
• State rank: #118 of 590 in NY

Livability — Warwick

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #4514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 20,368
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 20,368
• Household income: $125,870
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 563.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.68%
• Current HPI: 287.3366
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+43.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $229,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,542 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.