12828 Starbrimson Trl · Elgin, TX 78621

$215,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,335 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2004 8,328 sqft lot $92/sqft · 32% below area Est $317k · 32% under $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super cute 3 bed 2 1/2 bath home located in a good neighborhood. House is close to pool and other amenities. Primary bed and bath are downstairs; other two bedrooms, full bath and bonus room are upstairs. Home is close to schools, shopping and entertainment. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

Key facts

• Close to schools
• Close to pool
• Close to shopping

Tags

• CLOSE TO POOL
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-186 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (15.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,177 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,183
• List price: $215,000
• Delta: -32.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12717 Wood Lily Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,149 (-8%)	1mo	$295,000	$137	75
12820 Starbrimson Trl	0.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,277 (-2%)	21mo	$308,737	$136	70
12701 Waynespur Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,149 (-8%)	6mo	$315,000	$147	68
17816 Honey Locust Ln	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,146 (-8%)	2mo	$199,999	$93	63
17705 Wild Lily Cv	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,277 (-2%)	21mo	$289,900	$127	62
12832 Waynespur Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,149 (-8%)	22mo	$320,000	$149	62
23825 Glowing Embers Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,162 (-7%)	2mo	$258,990	$120	55
18354 Basket Flower Bnd	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,103 (-10%)	8mo	$298,000	$142	54
18141 Basket Flower Bnd	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,131 (-9%)	21mo	$340,000	$160	52
17712 Wild Lily Cv	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,104 (-10%)	22mo	$289,500	$138	51
12801 Sago Palm Trl	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,632 (+13%)	16mo	$360,000	$137	48
12809 Sago Palm Trl	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,573 (+10%)	23mo	$313,000	$122	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $105,818
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.35×
• Total profit: $322,042
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$637 /mo · $7,644/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,417

Max offer price $182,177

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-125	+0% $-186	+5% $-247	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-358	-5% $-272	+0% $-186	+5% $-100	+10% $-13
Rate	-1.0pp $-78	-0.5pp $-131	base $-186	+0.5pp $-242	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	44d	1	0.15mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	44d	1	0.42mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.44mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	18d	1	0.46mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.49mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.51mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.66mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	5d	1	0.66mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R2 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$600	$0.30	18d	1	0.83mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R3 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$560	$0.28	23d	1	0.83mi
13249 Illumination Rd Unit R4 Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$589	$0.29	44d	1	0.84mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	21d	1	0.85mi
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	0.97mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	5d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $215,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,400 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,400 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,400 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,400 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,400 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $230,400 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,400 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,400 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,400 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,400 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $230,400 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Super cute 3 bed 2 1/2 bath home located in a good neighborhood. House is close to pool and other amenities. Primary bed and bath are downstairs; other two bedrooms, full bath and bonus room are upstairs. Home is close to schools, shopping and entertainment. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

16. 2026-04-12
    listed $242,500 Active 315-char remark

    Show marketing remark (315 chars)

    Super cute 3 bed 2 1/2 bath home located in a good neighborhood. House is close to pool and other amenities. Primary bed and bath are downstairs; other two bedrooms, full bath and bonus room are upstairs. Home is close to schools, shopping and entertainment. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee).

17. 2025-06-07
    price
18. 2025-05-09
    price
19. 2025-05-01
    price
20. 2025-02-13
    listed Active
21. 2020-06-17
    soldstatus
22. 2020-06-12
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2020-05-14
    status Pending - Taking Backups
24. 2020-03-20
    listed $223,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,644 · $637/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,644 · $637/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$7,644
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,689
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,365
• After-tax cash flow: $-864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $230,400 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $242,500 Unlock MLS
• 2025-06-07 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2020-06-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-06-12 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-05-14 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-03-20 Listed $223,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $7,644 · -4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.