200 KOEHLER St · Bay City, MI 48706

$114,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1988 10,018 sqft lot Est $165k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful updated kitchen and dining room. Large open floor plan, vaulted ceilings, and master suite on double city lot with large 2 car detached garage.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchen island
• Master bedroom suite

Tags

• QUIET WEST SIDE NEIGHBORHOOD
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• LOTS OF CABINET SPACE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• MASTER BEDROOM SUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Manufactured double-wide (manufactured after 1976); Built in 1988
• Construction: Crawl foundation; Block basement type noted
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding exterior; Deck; Fenced yard; Corner lot on a main street within city limits; Large lot frontage (about 100')

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (13 x 13) with laminate flooring; Includes dishwasher, range/oven, and refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three first-floor bedrooms (12 x 16; 10 x 12; ~11) with carpeted floors
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and living room; Laminate in kitchen and dining room; Vinyl in one bathroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the first floor); Bathroom 1 with vinyl flooring; Bathroom 2 with laminate flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel; Gas water heater; Circuit breaker electrical panel
• Interior features: Living room with a wood-burning fireplace; Total of 9 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Basement: block foundation (crawl-type foundation indicated elsewhere)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Cap rate 11.7% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $115k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $114,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.46%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
709 N Wenona Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,436 (-14%)	2mo	$30,000	$21	65
514 S Kiesel St	0.28mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,526 (-9%)	4mo	$150,000	$98	57
1508 Raymond St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+1%)	5mo	$174,500	$103	55
5149 Reinhardt Ln	0.62mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,672 (-0%)	10mo	$199,000	$119	54
720 S Henry St	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-10%)	10mo	$30,000	$20	54
1312 Raymond St	0.50mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,750 (+4%)	14mo	$134,000	$77	51
204 N Mountain St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,722 (+2%)	7mo	$159,900	$93	50
204 S Kiesel St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,751 (+4%)	12mo	$183,000	$105	49
1208 S Chilson St	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,495 (-11%)	9mo	$140,000	$94	49
509 Gies St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+4%)	6mo	$189,900	$109	49
204 S Raymond St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,524 (-9%)	12mo	$38,500	$25	46
808 W Midland St	0.67mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,584 (-6%)	13mo	$270,000	$170	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $14,639
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $55,656
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,813/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $114,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 462-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $114,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,813 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$1,813
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $4,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,132
• After-tax cash flow: $5,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+33.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2012-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2012-03-22 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-09-17 Listed $79,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,813 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.