1420 Columbus Dr · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$84,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1961 8,803 sqft lot $88/sqft · 23% below area Est $110k · 23% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For comp purposes only. Property was sold in occupied status, as is, with no repairs.

Key facts

• 8,803 sq ft lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service (other)
• Home design: Single family residence; House with one and one-half levels
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 7.9% in Spanish Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Arrowpoint Elem. (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,058 of 1,115 statewide, top 96%, 358 students, 99% FRL); Hazelwood East High (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #495 of 521 statewide, top 95%, 1,264 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 53% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,353 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.29%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $109,869
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: -22.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12336 Santa Maria Dr	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+6%)	1mo	$125,000	$123	82
12355 Pinta Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	5mo	$81,900	$89	80
1321 Dominica Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,012 (+5%)	2mo	$124,900	$123	79
12321 Santa Maria Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+6%)	6mo	$135,000	$132	78
12019 Krenning Ln	0.31mi	3/1.0	930 (-3%)	1mo	$119,900	$129	77
12371 Pinta Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+6%)	3mo	$72,900	$71	77
1428 San Salvador Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	5mo	$75,000	$81	74
12352 Santa Maria Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,036 (+8%)	6mo	$94,900	$92	73
1459 Cove Ln	0.64mi	3/1.5	988 (+3%)	3mo	$79,900	$81	63
11891 Bridgevale Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0	864 (-10%)	5mo	$128,000	$148	47
1209 Northdale Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	1mo	$79,900	$92	47
1130 Lakeview Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	4mo	$42,500	$49	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $14,125
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $37,840
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,309/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $525	+0% $501	+5% $477	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $446	+0% $501	+5% $555	+10% $610
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $523	base $501	+0.5pp $479	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	44d	1	0.17mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	13d	1	0.38mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.39mi
12367 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12367 I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	24d	1	0.44mi
11930 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	816	$1,350	$1.65	44d	1	0.46mi
12401 Horizon Village Dr Unit 12415 A St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	836	$995	$1.19	44d	1	0.50mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	2d	9	0.53mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	5d	1	0.62mi
11891 Bridgevale Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.63mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	2d	1	0.67mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	24d	1	0.69mi
11921 Larimore Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	44d	1	0.80mi
1132 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	44d	1	0.80mi
1223 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.81mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	24d	1	0.84mi
1141 Scott Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,400	$1.62	22d	1	0.98mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	2d	3	1.01mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $84,900 Active 144-char remark
16. 2022-08-22
    soldstatus $360,000
17. 2022-08-19
    soldstatus 85-char remark

    Show marketing remark (85 chars)

    For comp purposes only. Property was sold in occupied status, as is, with no repairs.

18. 2022-07-06
    soldstatus
19. 2003-10-17
    soldstatus $77,000
20. 1988-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,309 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$1,309
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $4,957
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,190
• After-tax cash flow: $4,822/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+10.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $84,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-19 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,309 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.