27245 W Ross Ave · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$319,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2008 5,060 sqft lot $233/sqft · 17% below area Est $387k · 17% under $180/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Desirable Spirit floor plan offering 1,375 sq ft with 2 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms plus private office & den. No carpet throughout with new plank tile flooring in both bedrooms & den for a clean, modern look & easy maintenance. Kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, dining nook & a functional layout that opens to the main living area, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Spacious primary suite includes ensuite bath & generous closet space. Split bedroom design offers added privacy for guests. Mature desert landscape enhances curb appeal & provides a peaceful outdoor setting to enjoy Arizona living year-round. Ideally located in the heart of Sun City Festival near golf, recreation centers, dining, walking paths & community amenities.

Key facts

• 5,060 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 951 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $386,940
• List price: $319,900
• Delta: -17.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27127 W Adam Ave	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,280 (-7%)	3mo	$350,000	$273	67
20463 N 267th Ln	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,375 (0%)	1mo	$275,000	$200	66
26996 W Melinda Ln	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,279 (-7%)	1mo	$315,000	$246	60
26679 W Irma Ln	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,375 (0%)	3mo	$339,500	$247	60
21343 N 272nd Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+14%)	3mo	$412,990	$262	58
27072 W Adam Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,526 (+11%)	3mo	$393,990	$258	57
21290 N 270th Ave	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,524 (+11%)	3mo	$325,000	$213	57
21318 N 270th Ave	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,526 (+11%)	4mo	$370,000	$242	56
20421 N 275th Dr	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,561 (+14%)	2mo	$480,000	$307	53
26821 W Melinda Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,525 (+11%)	1mo	$372,000	$244	46
21107 N 267th Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,525 (+11%)	3mo	$364,000	$239	43
21392 N 268th Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,576 (+15%)	1mo	$380,000	$241	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-41,021
• Equity at exit: $47,698

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-18,122
• Equity at exit: $27,659

Cash invested: $89,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 951
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,995 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,705/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$629
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,805

Max offer price $319,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $240	+0% $150	+5% $59	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $31	+0% $150	+5% $268	+10% $386
Rate	-1.0pp $311	-0.5pp $231	base $150	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,975
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27244 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,500	$2.17	45d	1	0.03mi
20602 N 274th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$3,500	$2.24	0d	1	0.22mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	45d	1	0.32mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	2d	1	0.35mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	0d	1	0.63mi
27389 W Wahalla Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.5	1717	$3,500	$2.04	0d	1	0.65mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	4d	1	0.75mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	25d	1	0.85mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	19d	1	0.95mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	0d	1	0.96mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	45d	1	0.97mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	0d	1	1.25mi
18675 N 268th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1865	$1,799	$0.96	45d	1	1.42mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,850	$2.07	11d	1	1.46mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,900	$2.11	0d	1	1.46mi
26182 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,695	$1.04	4d	1	1.48mi
26195 W Via del Sol Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,300	$2.21	0d	1	1.50mi
26170 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$3,300	$2.96	2d	1	1.50mi
26208 W Tina Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$1,999	$1.24	14d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,900 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,900 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,900 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,900 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $319,900 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,900 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-04-26
    price $319,900 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Desirable Spirit floor plan offering 1,375 sq ft with 2 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms plus private office & den. No carpet throughout with new plank tile flooring in both bedrooms & den for a clean, modern look & easy maintenance. Kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, dining nook & a functional layout that opens to the main living area, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Spacious primary suite includes ensuite bath & generous closet space. Split bedroom design offers added privacy for guests. Mature desert landscape enhances curb appeal & provides a peaceful outdoor setting to enjoy Arizona living year-round. Ideally located in the heart of Sun City Festival near golf, recreation centers, dining, walking paths & community amenities.

17. 2026-03-17
    price $320,000 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Desirable Spirit floor plan offering 1,375 sq ft with 2 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms plus private office & den. No carpet throughout with new plank tile flooring in both bedrooms & den for a clean, modern look & easy maintenance. Kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, dining nook & a functional layout that opens to the main living area, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Spacious primary suite includes ensuite bath & generous closet space. Split bedroom design offers added privacy for guests. Mature desert landscape enhances curb appeal & provides a peaceful outdoor setting to enjoy Arizona living year-round. Ideally located in the heart of Sun City Festival near golf, recreation centers, dining, walking paths & community amenities.

18. 2026-02-24
    listed $335,000 Active 827-char remark

    Show marketing remark (827 chars)

    Desirable Spirit floor plan offering 1,375 sq ft with 2 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms plus private office & den. No carpet throughout with new plank tile flooring in both bedrooms & den for a clean, modern look & easy maintenance. Kitchen features granite countertops, ample cabinetry, dining nook & a functional layout that opens to the main living area, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. Spacious primary suite includes ensuite bath & generous closet space. Split bedroom design offers added privacy for guests. Mature desert landscape enhances curb appeal & provides a peaceful outdoor setting to enjoy Arizona living year-round. Ideally located in the heart of Sun City Festival near golf, recreation centers, dining, walking paths & community amenities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,705 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$2,705
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,875
• − Management: −$2,875
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$3,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$841
• After-tax cash flow: $2,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $319,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $320,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $335,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,705 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.