315 NE Cardinal Ln · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$148,884

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 849 sqft · Condo public records · 127 Days on market

Built 2025 $168/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

Key facts

• City water and sewer
• Close to the beach
• New appliances

Tags

• 200-AMP ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• TRANSFERRABLE HOME WARRANTY
• RV BOAT STORAGE
• CITY WATER AND SEWER
• CLOSE TO THE BEACH
• NEW APPLIANCES

🏢 Co-op / cooperative unit. The $148,884 price buys shares in the cooperative corporation, not the real estate itself — so it isn't comparable to a fee-simple sale price, and the cashflow / cap-rate / 1%-rule cards below (which assume you own the property and can rent it out) don't apply here. Expect board approval and a monthly maintenance fee on top of the price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.1% in Jensen Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 536 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,017 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.82%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,868
• List price: $148,884
• Delta: 181.61%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $13,307
• Equity at exit: $22,199

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $48,617
• Equity at exit: $12,873

Cash invested: $41,688 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 536
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,157 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $473/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$168
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $148,884

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,221
• Closing costs: $4,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1585 NE Beacon Dr #1103 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$1,495	$1.56	23d	1	0.27mi
1999 NE Collins Cir Unit 3-80 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,775	$1.66	23d	1	0.28mi
1971 NE Collins Cir #20 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1037	$1,750	$1.69	23d	1	0.30mi
2013 NE Collins Cir #50 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	903	$1,800	$1.99	13d	1	0.30mi
1622 NE Maureen Ct Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,800	$2.31	13d	1	0.30mi
1617 NE Nautical Pl Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	961	$1,850	$1.93	13d	1	0.31mi
1411 NE 14th Ct #13 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,000	$2.73	23d	1	0.38mi
1600 NE Dixie Hwy Unit 10-203 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,300	$2.15	23d	1	0.55mi
2563 NE Palm Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,400	$2.53	23d	1	0.82mi
1097 NE Kubin Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	952	$2,450	$2.57	23d	1	0.85mi
2459 NE Hickory Ave Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,700	$2.31	23d	1	0.86mi
1001 NE Baker Rd Stuart, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,280	$2.40	13d	27	0.86mi
2952 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$3,000	$2.84	23d	1	0.91mi
2680 NE Indian River Dr Unit 9 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$2,100	$2.62	13d	1	0.96mi
2506 NE Heron's Walk Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	23d	1	0.97mi
2646 NE Pelican Way Jensen Beach, FL	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,400	$2.40	23d	1	1.00mi
2632 NE Pelican Way Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$4,800	$4.80	23d	1	1.00mi
3111 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,995	$1.84	13d	1	1.01mi
3121 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3121 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1085	$2,095	$1.93	23d	1	1.02mi
3123 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3123 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	23d	1	1.03mi
297 NE Coastal DR #297 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	23d	1	1.09mi
25 NE 17th St Stuart, FL	3.0	2.0	990	$2,000	$2.02	23d	1	1.21mi
1398 NW Cavendish Ct Stuart, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1242	$2,393	$1.93	21d	11	1.38mi
3663 NE Barbara Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	991	$2,450	$2.47	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $168 · $2,016/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerelectricpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $148,884 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $148,884 Active 126 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $148,884 Active 125 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $148,884 Active 124 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $148,885 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $148,885 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $148,885 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $148,885 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $148,885 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $148,885 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $148,887 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $148,887 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $148,887 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $148,887 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $148,887 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,887 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $148,887 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $148,888 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

19. 2026-04-19
    price $148,889 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

20. 2026-04-17
    price $149,875 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

21. 2026-04-13
    price $1,499,875 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

22. 2026-03-20
    price $149,998 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

23. 2026-02-25
    price $159,998 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

24. 2026-02-11
    listed $169,999 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Brand New, Just for You--Your Future Starts Here! Welcome to 315 NE Cardinal Lane in the 55+ Ocean community of Tropical Acres in Jensen Beach, FL. No lot rent here! This is a co-op community and HOA fees are only $168 per month which includes common areas, pool service and reserve funds. This new home comes with 200-amp electrical service, transferrable home warranty, 8' ceilings, AC vents from the attic, 8x10 shed that is prepped for electric and built to Martin County Building Code Wind Mitigation 3. RV/Boat storage for $30/month. City water and sewer and well water for sprinkler system. Great location just blocks to downtown Jensen Beach and close to the beach. All appliances are new as this home has never been lived in. Unit walkthrough: https://youtu. be/qlwpdmEwrp0

25. 2025-06-19
    historical
26. 2025-05-09
    listed $172,000 Active
27. 2024-04-23
    historical
28. 2024-04-09
    price $34,999
29. 2024-03-14
    price $44,999
30. 2024-02-28
    price $39,999
31. 2023-12-01
    price $35,999
32. 2023-10-16
    status Active
33. 2023-09-16
    status Pending
34. 2023-08-31
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2023-04-24
    listed $31,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $473 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$762/yr (+$64/mo · 161.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,340
• − Property taxes: −$473
• − Insurance: −$744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,071
• − Management: −$2,071
• − HOA: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$4,331
• Taxable income: $5,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,401
• After-tax cash flow: $6,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+365.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $148,888 MCRTC
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $148,889 MCRTC
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $149,875 MCRTC
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $1,499,875 MCRTC
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $149,998 MCRTC
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $159,998 MCRTC
• 2026-02-11 Listed $169,999 MCRTC
• 2025-06-19 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-05-09 Listed $172,000 Beaches MLS
• 2024-04-23 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2024-04-09 Price Changed $34,999 MCRTC
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $44,999 MCRTC
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $39,999 MCRTC
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $35,999 MCRTC
• 2023-10-16 Relisted — MCRTC
• 2023-09-16 Pending — MCRTC
• 2023-08-31 Contingent — MCRTC
• 2023-04-24 Listed $31,999 MCRTC

Property tax history

-4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $473 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.