9631 Simeon Dr · Connerton, FL 34638

$309,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,531 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2007 5,041 sqft lot Est $309k · at est. $70/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in Asbel Estates! This two-story home features approximately 1,531 heated square feet, 2.5 bathrooms, an attached garage, and a fenced backyard. Recent improvements include a newer HVAC system (2021) and water heater replacement (2022), helping provide peace of mind for the next owner. The functional floor plan offers comfortable living spaces, ceramic tile flooring, and plenty of room for everyday living and entertaining. Located in the heart of Land O' Lakes with convenient access to shopping, restaurants, schools, parks, and major commuter routes. Homes in this area continue to attract strong buyer interest due to their location, community amenities, and overall value.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Fenced backyard
• Newer hvac system

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• WATER HEATER REPLACEMENT
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: MPUD zoning; Total building area listed as 2,017 square feet; Living area listed as 1,531 square feet
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated; Homestead status claimed
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Wise Property Management; HOA fees required; $212 quarterly (approximately $70.67/month); Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer connected; No water source listed
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Faces southeast
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.12-acre lot
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-98/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Connerton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 712 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,021 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,262
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18916 Randall Pl	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,545 (+1%)	4mo	$309,500	$200	88
19001 Quarry Badger Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-2%)	2mo	$329,900	$219	77
9638 Jaybird Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,485 (-3%)	9mo	$340,000	$229	71
18833 Litzau Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+12%)	6mo	$295,000	$171	62
10567 Heron Hideaway Loop	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+0%)	3mo	$280,000	$183	59
10271 Hawks Landing Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,519 (-1%)	6mo	$340,000	$224	59
9805 Jasmine Brook Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+15%)	8mo	$359,900	$205	58
9954 Jasmine Brook Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+15%)	5mo	$335,000	$191	54
18916 New Passage Blvd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,749 (+14%)	9mo	$353,000	$202	51
9928 Torrisdale Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (-3%)	4mo	$350,000	$236	50
19418 Timberbluff Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,719 (+12%)	4mo	$319,000	$186	43
18339 Fish Loop	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,733 (+13%)	8mo	$340,000	$196	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-57,877
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-79,239
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 712
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,591/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$70
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,471

Max offer price $307,558

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9543 Maxson Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,250	$1.21	24d	1	0.07mi
18916 Randall Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1545	$2,200	$1.42	24d	1	0.11mi
18846 Quarry Badger Rd Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1855	$3,000	$1.62	24d	1	0.22mi
9627 Jaybird Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2217	$2,199	$0.99	24d	1	0.31mi
10120 Perthshire Cir Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1872	$1,200	$0.64	24d	1	0.44mi
10567 Heron Hideaway Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,050	$1.34	13d	1	0.73mi
18236 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	2023	$2,395	$1.18	15d	1	0.78mi
10179 Gliding Eagle Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1829	$2,800	$1.53	18d	1	0.78mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,175	$1.46	24d	1	0.85mi
18772 Grand Live Oak BLVD HOWEY IN HLS, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1076	$2,682	$2.49	2d	174	0.96mi
10735 Hawks Landing Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,495	$1.35	15d	1	0.99mi
17761 Pleasantview Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,600	$1.39	20d	1	1.18mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,250	$1.47	24d	1	1.20mi
17784 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,450	$1.60	24d	1	1.23mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,095	$1.38	24d	1	1.23mi
8710 Preston Woods Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$2,850	$1.69	18d	1	1.24mi
18039 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,895	$1.91	24d	1	1.38mi
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $70 · $840/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-02
   listed $309,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,565 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$974/yr (+$81/mo · 61.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,591
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,362
• − Management: −$2,362
• − HOA: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$5,475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,314
• After-tax cash flow: $1,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-93.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $309,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $1,009,831 Public Records
• 2006-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $4,986,450 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,591 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.