3585 W Hilltop Ln · Citrus Springs, FL 34433

$180,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1972 6,477 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER! Seller offering potential owner financing with 20 percent down. With 3 bedrooms and two full baths, this versatile property is ideal as an investment, weekend getaway, or full-time residence. Many upgrades. Located just blocks from a public boat ramp and its own deeded access to the Withlacoochee River. Lake Rousseau and the Withlacoochee are perfect for the avid fisherman and outdoor enthusiasts. 15 minutes to the Gulf of Mexico, Gothe Forest and conveniently located to everyday amenities.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Fenced back yard
• Nearby amenities

Tags

• PUBLIC BOAT RAMP
• LARGE DECK
• FENCED BACK YARD
• NEW REROOF
• NEARBY AMENITIES
• NATURAL BEAUTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: CLRMH
• Financial info:
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Faces south; Three or more levels; Located on approximately 0.15 acre lot
• Construction: Block construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built with approximately 1,248 total living area (per public records)
• Exterior features: French doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Wood-burning fireplace in living room; Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (0.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.1% in Citrus Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#521 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Citrus Springs Elementary School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 817 students, 71% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $530,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12004 N Campwest Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-1%)	14mo	$525,000	$425	57
3795 W Porcupine Ln	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (-14%)	19mo	$139,000	$129	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-17,934
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,078
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34433

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,678/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,572

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $227	+0% $176	+5% $125	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $105	+0% $176	+5% $247	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $222	base $176	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11127 N Trigger Ter Citrus Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,795	$1.27	22d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $180,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $180,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-01
    price $180,000
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $180,000 Active 513-char remark

    Show marketing remark (513 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER! Seller offering potential owner financing with 20 percent down. With 3 bedrooms and two full baths, this versatile property is ideal as an investment, weekend getaway, or full-time residence. Many upgrades. Located just blocks from a public boat ramp and its own deeded access to the Withlacoochee River. Lake Rousseau and the Withlacoochee are perfect for the avid fisherman and outdoor enthusiasts. 15 minutes to the Gulf of Mexico, Gothe Forest and conveniently located to everyday amenities.

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $195,000 Active
20. 2025-09-24
    soldstatus $152,000
21. 2023-10-05
    historical $1,400
22. 2023-10-02
    listed $1,400
23. 2018-11-01
    soldstatus $119,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,678 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,678 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$2,678
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$193
• After-tax cash flow: $2,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Citrus Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #521
• US rank: #9598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,730
• Population (ZIP): 8,218

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.35%
• Current HPI: 340.9844
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+50.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $180,000 RACC
• 2026-04-17 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $152,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-05 Rental Removed $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2023-10-02 Listed for Rent $1,400 STELLARMLS
• 2018-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $119,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,678 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.