Celeste Plan · Balm, FL 33598

$325,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · SingleFamily · 242 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Appreciation +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

Key facts

• Adjoining bathroom
• Owner's suite
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-PLAN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• ATTACHED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ADJOINING BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $326k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-583/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#742 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wimauma Elementary School (math 31% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 543 students, 81% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.4%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $278,943 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.35% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-55,039
• Equity at exit: $58,164

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-75,449
• Equity at exit: $44,898

Cash invested: $91,252 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33598

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,709
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$407 /mo · $4,888/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,851

Max offer price $318,872

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $64	+0% $-49	+5% $-161	+10% $-274
Rent	-10% $-269	-5% $-159	+0% $-49	+5% $62	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $34	base $-49	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,475
• Closing costs: $9,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15007 Coltman Hill Pl Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,550	$1.33	26d	1	0.33mi
13181 Garnet Raspberry Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,500	$1.29	26d	1	0.90mi
13095 Calcite Blue Ave Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,300	$1.19	19d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,900 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,900 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,900 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,900 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,900 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,900 Active 234 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,900 Active 233 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,900 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,900 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,900 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,900 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,900 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,900 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,900 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,900 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $325,900 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $325,400 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

18. 2026-04-20
    price $324,900 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

19. 2026-04-02
    price $324,400 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

20. 2026-03-02
    price $321,400 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

21. 2026-02-22
    price $319,400 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

22. 2026-02-13
    price $306,400 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

23. 2025-10-22
    listed $351,900 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This new single-story home is a modern take on a classic design. Down the foyer is a spacious and open-plan family room which has direct access to the cozy dining room, well-equipped kitchen and attached patio, perfect for everyday living. In a private corner is the owner's suite with a convenient adjoining bathroom, while on the opposite side of the home are three secondary bedrooms to offer restful retreats.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,255
• − Property taxes: −$4,888
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,678
• − Management: −$2,678
• − Depreciation: −$9,481
• Taxable loss: −$6,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This modern single-story home is in good condition with a good rehab level, ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops and backsplash in kitchen — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Balm

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #742
• US rank: #16016

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Balm, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 196
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,820
• Household income: $97,520
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.35%
• Current HPI: 271.8552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $325,900 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $325,400 Zillow
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $324,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $324,400 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $321,400 Zillow
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $319,400 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $306,400 Zillow
• 2025-10-22 Listed $351,900 Zillow