10419 Hollyglen Dr · Houston, TX 77016

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1956 6,891 sqft lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $182k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Shopping
• Oversized backyard

Tags

• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• WELL-MAINTAINED SHED
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING
• SHOPPING
• DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered carport for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story (single level) home; Slab foundation; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Built in 1956; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window heating unit; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($419/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,329 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.35%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,232
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 1.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10507 Royal Oaks Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (+1%)	2mo	$215,000	$164	83
6015 Langley Rd	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,245 (-4%)	2mo	$95,000	$76	79
7234 Boggess Rd	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-5%)	1mo	$168,000	$136	72
5702 Yorkwood St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,312 (+1%)	2mo	$165,000	$126	70
7321 Wiley Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,262 (-3%)	2mo	$179,900	$143	69
10414 Onslow St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,212 (-7%)	3mo	$199,500	$165	67
10214 Bretton Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,126 (-13%)	3mo	$125,000	$111	64
10329 Wicklowe St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,194 (-8%)	2mo	$149,000	$125	62
10317 Kelburn Dr	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,107 (-15%)	2mo	$175,000	$158	62
7261 Boggess Rd	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,176 (-10%)	1mo	$110,000	$94	58
7422 Wheatley Gardens Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+9%)	3mo	$190,000	$134	49
7314 Bigwood St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,122 (-14%)	2mo	$90,000	$80	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $81,905
• Equity at exit: $148,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $228,718
• Equity at exit: $303,411

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,703 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,370/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,659

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.20mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	0.35mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	21d	1	0.43mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.45mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	44d	1	0.47mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	17d	1	0.47mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	44d	1	0.50mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	44d	1	0.79mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	44d	1	0.79mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.79mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.87mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	8d	1	0.91mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	8d	1	0.93mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	1.09mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	1.11mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	1.14mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	1.15mi
9422 Sandra St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,875	$1.28	44d	1	1.22mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	1.25mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	1.28mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	8d	1	1.35mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.35mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	1.47mi
11235 Lemond Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-27
   listed $184,900 Active 597-char remark
2. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,370 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,014/yr (+$84/mo · 42.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,370
• − Insurance: −$1,722
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,635
• − Management: −$1,635
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$2,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $1,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $184,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,370 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.