212 Hawthorne Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$284,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,558 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1987 $183/sqft · 39% above area Est $248k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently updated 3/2 in North Place! Fresh paint, luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, new appliances, tile showers and quartz countertops! Super convenient location and move-in ready. Please reach out with any questions!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Tile showers
• Convenient location

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• TILE SHOWERS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $132 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,956 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,602
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: 15.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Azalea Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$168	82
636 Live Oak Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-5%)	3mo	$249,000	$169	76
112 Armonde Ct	0.43mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,563 (+0%)	1mo	$259,000	$166	68
409 Hawthorne Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-0%)	4mo	$274,999	$177	67
429 S Pin Oak Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-7%)	3mo	$247,500	$170	67
1022 N Azalea Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,544 (-1%)	5mo	$245,000	$159	63
122 Eastwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-5%)	8mo	$245,000	$166	57
100 Glenwood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+13%)	2mo	$279,000	$158	56
163 Azalea Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,764 (+13%)	6mo	$279,900	$159	54
368 Post Oak Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-6%)	7mo	$250,000	$170	54
520 Hunters Creek Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,737 (+12%)	3mo	$249,000	$143	53
104 Willow Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,384 (-11%)	2mo	$234,900	$170	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-38,747
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-26,970
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $132

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,492

Max offer price $284,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1011 Mcdale Ln Madison, MS	4.0	2.0	2036	$2,500	$1.23	44d	1	1.22mi
345 Avonlea Ln Madison, MS	3.0	2.0	2185	$2,500	$1.14	44d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $284,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $284,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $284,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $284,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $284,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    listed $284,900 Active 224-char remark
13. 2026-03-30
    soldstatus
14. 1999-09-29
    soldstatus
15. 1993-06-04
    soldstatus
16. 1987-07-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,553
• − Management: −$2,553
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$3,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$753
• After-tax cash flow: $2,339/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madison, MS
• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Property tax history

-8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $532 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.