1410 Mariposa Cir #102 · Vineyards, FL 34105

$475,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,334 sqft · Townhouse · 48 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $628/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. Beautiful, pristine, and spacious home at a great location. This precious, bright and tastefully updated two-story 3/2/2 unit has it all: vinyl flooring all over, open kitchen with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances including french door refrigerator, open floor plan great for entertaining, spacious living room, formal dining an breakfast nook, upstairs loft/den, huge master bedroom with 2 walking closets, completely remodeled master bathroom with a freestanding bathtub, and laundry upstairs for convenience. Mariposa is a small very well maintained community centrally located close to shopping, restaur

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Development/Community name: Whippoorwill (sub-condo: Mariposa); Part of a complex with 180 units; 6 units in the building; 2 floors
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (monthly condo fee); Monthly condo fee of $628.79; Total annual recurring fees approximately $7,548; One-time fees approximately $100; Professional management; HOA maintains internet/Wi‑Fi, irrigation water, lawn/land, pest control (exterior), sewer, street lights and maintenance, water, legal/accounting, manager, reserves; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, community room, exercise room, streetlights, and underground utilities; Gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway; Guest parking (additional spaces)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; 2-story contemporary design; Rear exposure faces south; Zero lot line
• Construction: Built in 2005; Concrete block construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Manual shutters; Brick and stucco exterior; Gated community; Lake view/waterfront on a lake; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Refrigerator/ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus a den; Master bedroom upstairs; Split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Tray ceiling; Walk-in closet; Den/Study; Guest room; Screened lanai/porch; Guest bath; Laundry in residence; Auto garage door; Unfurnished; Three ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room inside residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $475k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $821 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Osceola Elementary School (math 78% / reading 74%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 621 students, 32% FRL); Barron Collier High School (math 62% / reading 68%, grade B, #76 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,650 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,989/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($92k/yr) (locally 780% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $460,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.41%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-36,902
• Equity at exit: $70,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-12,736
• Equity at exit: $41,069

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34105

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,989 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$594 /mo · $7,125/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$628
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,258
• Net cashflow: $821

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,950

Max offer price $475,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	23d	1	0.16mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	13d	1	0.16mi
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	13d	1	0.19mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	13d	1	0.21mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	23d	1	0.31mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	21d	1	0.31mi
12885 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2489	$10,000	$4.02	23d	1	0.45mi
13078 Pembroke Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2024	$6,500	$3.21	23d	1	0.46mi
12839 Carrington Cir Unit 8-102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2063	$6,500	$3.15	23d	1	0.48mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	23d	1	0.49mi
12902 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2100	$7,500	$3.57	23d	1	0.52mi
12848 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	4.0	2.5	2689	$6,000	$2.23	23d	1	0.53mi
12832 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$5,250	$3.06	13d	1	0.57mi
6525 Monterey Pt Unit 203 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$5,250	$2.29	13d	1	0.58mi
6559 Monterey Pt Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2300	$9,000	$3.91	21d	1	0.59mi
12667 Biscayne Ct Naples, FL	4.0	3.5	2600	$8,500	$3.27	23d	1	0.60mi
6548 Monterey Pt Unit 204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2288	$6,000	$2.62	13d	1	0.62mi
6670 Marbella Ln Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2439	$8,400	$3.44	23d	1	0.68mi
6542 Marbella Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2144	$6,250	$2.92	23d	1	0.70mi
4740 Stratford Ct #1603 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2686	$14,000	$5.21	23d	1	0.90mi
4752 Stratford Ct #1404 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2686	$8,500	$3.16	23d	1	0.91mi
3099 Lancaster Dr Unit 7-701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2160	$10,000	$4.63	23d	1	1.04mi
172 Vintage Cir #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$5,195	$2.93	13d	1	1.08mi
102 Tuscana Ct #901 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1631	$2,300	$1.41	23d	1	1.10mi
152 Napa Ridge Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$7,000	$3.94	23d	1	1.24mi
224 Via Perignon Unit 5-4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	2085	$6,000	$2.88	21d	1	1.25mi
5065 Kensington High St Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2661	$20,000	$7.52	23d	1	1.28mi
5950 Almaden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$6,500	$3.69	23d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $628 · $7,536/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $475,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $475,000 Active 32 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $71,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$7,125
• − Insurance: −$2,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,750
• − Management: −$5,750
• − HOA: −$7,536
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable income: $2,909
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $9,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, updated two-story 3/2/2 unit is move-in ready with vinyl flooring, granite countertops, and a remodeled master bathroom. The community is well-maintained with greenery and is centrally located close to shopping and restaurants.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Neutral paint colors can be updated to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhance curb appeal and create a more inviting atmosphere
• Both Lighting — Update lighting fixtures to improve ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Neutral paint colors can be updated to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhance curb appeal and create a more inviting atmosphere ↑
• Both Lighting — Update lighting fixtures to improve ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,441
• Household income: $92,214
• Rent vs Own: 29.7% rent · 70.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.65%
• Current HPI: 283.9084
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $475,000 NAPLESMLS