Plan 1042 Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

$197,995

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 304 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Open floor plan * Tile flooring at wet areas * Dedicated pantry, linen and coat closets * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Dedicated pantry
• Smart thermostat

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• DEDICATED PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $197,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $244,710.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-396 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (17.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.9% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1145 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 304 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $163,883 (17.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 304 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.94%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,710
• List price: $197,995
• Delta: -19.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22206 Hawberry Blossom Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,092 (+5%)	4mo	$237,400	$217	84
18331 Sessile Oak Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (+18%)	18mo	$259,995	$211	42
18314 Sessile Oak Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (+18%)	19mo	$249,995	$203	41
18327 Sessile Oak Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (+18%)	21mo	$248,544	$201	40
18323 Banyan Fig Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,234 (+18%)	19mo	$249,995	$203	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-69,682
• Equity at exit: $36,487

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-111,653
• Equity at exit: $21,158

Cash invested: $68,519 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $217,995 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 356 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +33.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1145
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,671/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-396

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,141

Max offer price $187,342

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-312	+0% $-396	+5% $-481	+10% $-566
Rent	-10% $-526	-5% $-461	+0% $-396	+5% $-332	+10% $-267
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-334	base $-396	+0.5pp $-460	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,177
• Closing costs: $7,341
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21799 Cypress Rose Hill Rd Tomball, TX	2.0	2.0	984	$1,769	$1.80	10d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $197,995 Active 304 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $197,995 Active 303 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $197,995 Active 302 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $197,995 Active 301 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $197,995 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $197,995 Active 298 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $197,995 Active 297 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $197,995 Active 296 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $197,995 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $197,995 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $197,995 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $197,995 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $197,995 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $197,995 Active 290 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $197,995 Active 289 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $197,995 Active 288 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $197,995 Active 287 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $197,995 Active 286 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $197,995 Active 285 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $197,995 Active 284 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $197,995 Active 283 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $197,995 Active 282 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $197,995 Active 281 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $197,995 Active 280 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $197,995 Active 279 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $197,995 Active 278 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $197,995 Active 277 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $197,995 Active 276 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $197,995 Active 275 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $197,995 Active 274 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $197,995 Active 273 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $197,995 Active 272 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $197,995 Active 271 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $197,995 Active 270 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $197,995 Active 269 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $197,995 Active 268 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $197,995 Active 267 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $197,995 Active 266 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $197,995 Active 265 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $197,995 Active 264 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $197,995 Active 263 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $197,995 Active 262 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $197,995 Active 261 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $197,995 Active 260 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $197,995 Active 259 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $197,995 Active 258 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $197,995 Active 257 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $197,995 Active 256 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $197,995 Active 255 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $197,995 Active 254 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,666
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,708
• − Property taxes: −$3,671
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$7,119
• Taxable loss: −$9,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs needed and a good rehab level of 'none'. The home has a good curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace waterSense faucets — Modern, energy-efficient faucets improve water efficiency and appeal ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Rosehill El F TX #1,883/4,322 Nat'l #22,441/41,679 Middle Tomball Int C TX #347/1,662 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Tomball H S B+ TX #111/1,632 Nat'l #2,009/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $198,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $200,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $216,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $200,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $198,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $196,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $194,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Listed $193,995 Zillow