9 Church St · Dunbar, PA 15431

$99,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 254 Days on market

Built 1910 5,227 sqft lot $78/sqft · 48% below area Est $191k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home in Dunbar Borough. Don't miss this well maintained 2 story brick home situated on a level lot. This spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, perfect for families or those looking for room to grow. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a 14x12 patio, above ground pool and inflatable Jacuzzi tub - ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The fenced in rear yard and dedicated firepit area add to the charm and functionality of this beautiful property. With classic cub appeal, solid construction, and plenty of space inside and out, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

Key facts

• 14x12 patio
• Above ground pool
• Level lot

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• 14X12 PATIO
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• INFLATABLE JACUZZI TUB
• FENCED IN REAR YARD
• DEDICATED FIREPIT AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#1,255 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Connellsville Area SD (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #440 of 539 in PA (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $100k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.59%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,227
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -47.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $15,341
• Equity at exit: $38,614

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $49,486
• Equity at exit: $55,004

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15431

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $989/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $890

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 254 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 253 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 252 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 251 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 249 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 245 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 244 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 243 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 239 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 238 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 237 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 236 DOM
15. 2025-10-06
    listed $99,900 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom 2 bath brick home in Dunbar Borough. Don't miss this well maintained 2 story brick home situated on a level lot. This spacious home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths, perfect for families or those looking for room to grow. Enjoy outdoor living at its best with a 14x12 patio, above ground pool and inflatable Jacuzzi tub - ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The fenced in rear yard and dedicated firepit area add to the charm and functionality of this beautiful property. With classic cub appeal, solid construction, and plenty of space inside and out, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

16. 2016-11-29
    soldstatus $43,500
17. 2016-02-02
    historical 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This Two story Move In Ready all brick home will make a Great starter home, It has 3 bedroom, 2 bath, kitchen with all redone cabinets. The home has a new furnace, hot water tank, windows, and roof. Nice level lot with a 14x12 patio and two storage sheds.

18. 2015-02-02
    listed $57,900 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    This Two story Move In Ready all brick home will make a Great starter home, It has 3 bedroom, 2 bath, kitchen with all redone cabinets. The home has a new furnace, hot water tank, windows, and roof. Nice level lot with a 14x12 patio and two storage sheds.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$295/yr (+$25/mo · 29.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,882
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$989
• − Insurance: −$1,166
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,031
• − Management: −$1,031
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39
• After-tax cash flow: $1,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connellsville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4206660
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $39,315
• Composite: 25.95/100
• National rank: #7333
• State rank: #440 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dunbar

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #1255
• US rank: #15065

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunbar, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Current HPI: 153.7077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+72.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-06 Listed $99,900 West Penn MLS
• 2016-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-02 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2015-02-02 Listed $57,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $989 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.