6715 Pebble Bluff Ct · Cove, TX 77523

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · SingleFamily · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,403 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This thoughtfully designed Rains plan offers 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,501 sq ft of comfortable living space. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and great room, ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is appointed with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, stylish thimble cabinets, and durable wood-look flooring that extends through the main living areas. Step outside to a covered patio, perfect for relaxing or hosting guests, while the home’s modern exterior showcases classic brick with neutral tones for timeless curb appeal. Located at 6715 Pebble Bluff Court in the Windcress community and zoned to Barber

Key facts

• 8,403 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pool available through the association; Community features include curbs and gutters
• HOA & community: Association managed by Pulte Management; Association amenities include playground, pickleball, and pool; Association fee paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Prewired for security; Security system owned; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Faces southeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by Coventry Homes; Brick construction; Composition roof; Year built 2026
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 rooms total
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub with shower; Ceiling fan(s); Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,215.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbers Hill El South (math 68% / reading 62%, grade B+, #246 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 883 students, 37% FRL); Barbers Hill Middle South (math 77% / reading 63%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 636 students, 0% FRL); Barbers Hill H S (math 70% / reading 74%, grade B+, #95 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 1,972 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 12% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 781 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,131 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.51%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,215
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: -4.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
535 Louis Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	8mo	$260,950	$173	79
6810 Bens Lndg	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+1%)	3mo	$259,140	$171	76
303 Ruby Ford Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,496 (-0%)	5mo	$279,990	$187	74
411 Ruby Ford Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-6%)	1mo	$254,970	$181	74
6707 Alejandro Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+6%)	1mo	$299,100	$188	70
507 Louis Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-6%)	8mo	$269,990	$192	67
6830 Bens Lndg	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+5%)	1mo	$274,870	$174	64
6743 Camila St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+12%)	2mo	$284,000	$169	60
419 Ruby Ford Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+12%)	4mo	$289,950	$172	56
6818 Bens Lndg	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+9%)	1mo	$269,800	$164	51
6922 Bens Lndg	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,642 (+9%)	1mo	$269,180	$164	48
8415 Rio Spring Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,688 (+12%)	6mo	$309,640	$183	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-73,154
• Equity at exit: $45,359

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-91,465
• Equity at exit: $26,303

Cash invested: $85,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 781
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,595
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,563/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $247,647

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-286	+0% $-391	+5% $-496	+10% $-601
Rent	-10% $-570	-5% $-480	+0% $-391	+5% $-302	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-238	-0.5pp $-314	base $-391	+0.5pp $-470	+1.0pp $-550

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,054
• Closing costs: $9,126
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14930 Spring Forest Ln Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1829	$2,750	$1.50	45d	1	0.85mi
14739 Sweet Water Dr Baytown, TX	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,395	$1.32	3d	1	0.92mi
5815 Littoral Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$1,845	$1.41	21d	1	1.25mi
8414 Liberty Sky Rd Baytown, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,095	$1.02	26d	1	1.36mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	4d	1	1.36mi
21 Cotton Bayou Cir Cove, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,195	$0.98	17d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $289,990 Pending 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,990 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,990 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $289,990 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,990 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-05-02
    price $289,990 995-char remark
11. 2026-04-30
    listed $289,990 Active 881-char remark
12. 2026-03-19
    price $304,990 995-char remark
13. 2026-02-27
    listed $313,090 Active 995-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,136
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,041
• − Property taxes: −$4,563
• − Insurance: −$1,521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,850
• Taxable loss: −$10,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,419
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This thoughtfully designed Rains plan offers a good condition with a modern exterior and well-maintained interior. The addition of a playground and tennis courts would significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Playground and tennis courts — Improves family-friendly appeal and rental value
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Playground and tennis courts — Improves family-friendly appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $289,990 HARMLS