7448 10th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$224,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,489 sqft · Other · 104 Days on market

Built 2026 4,950 sqft lot $151/sqft · 8% above area Est $208k · 8% over $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 7446 10th Street! The Dama floorplan is a beautiful brick home offering a functional 1,481 square feet two-story design with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The main level features an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room flow seamlessly together, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add to the home's thoughtful first-floor layout. Upstairs, all bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom. A centrally located laundry area and smart switch adding everyday convenience, making the Dama a practical and comfortable choice for modern living. Completion date: 6/8/2026. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built.

Key facts

• 4,950 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($248/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 464 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $171,816 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,496
• List price: $224,990
• Delta: 7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-36,603
• Equity at exit: $33,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-36,089
• Equity at exit: $19,453

Cash invested: $62,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 464
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $504/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,692

Max offer price $224,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $84	+0% $21	+5% $-43	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-47	+0% $21	+5% $89	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $78	base $21	+0.5pp $-38	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,248
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7105 14th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	22d	1	0.27mi
7324 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,950	$1.10	22d	1	0.33mi
6813 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,550	$1.07	22d	1	0.35mi
1409 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,800	$1.80	22d	1	0.39mi
1003 Oshkosh Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	14d	1	0.55mi
7403 5th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,349	$1.03	44d	1	0.55mi
6806 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	44d	1	0.56mi
6806 4th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,550	$0.95	44d	1	0.56mi
6724 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	44d	1	0.58mi
7415 5th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,450	$1.12	44d	1	0.64mi
7410 5th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,400	$1.10	44d	1	0.64mi
7452 8th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,075	$1.20	14d	1	0.66mi
6521 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,795	$0.96	44d	1	0.70mi
6513 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,750	$1.02	44d	1	0.73mi
6927 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,599	$0.99	22d	1	0.77mi
6505 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,600	$0.98	14d	1	0.77mi
6504 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	45d	1	0.79mi
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	22d	1	0.89mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	22d	1	0.96mi
7216 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,700	$0.98	44d	1	1.01mi
6801 19th St Unit 179 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,100	$1.09	44d	1	1.02mi
6509 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1044	$925	$0.89	44d	1	1.09mi
403 Kirby Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$695	$0.39	44d	1	1.09mi
7324 26th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	936	$850	$0.91	44d	1	1.17mi
2612 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,775	$1.11	14d	1	1.19mi
2104 La Salle Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,250	$1.69	44d	1	1.20mi
2801 Trenton Ave Unit LO Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,799	$1.04	22d	1	1.24mi
2625 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	44d	1	1.25mi
6101 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,375	$1.11	14d	1	1.26mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	44d	1	1.27mi
6106 9th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1361	$1,350	$0.99	44d	1	1.30mi
6106 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	44d	1	1.34mi
2911 Urbana Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	1.40mi
6223 24th St Unit Labs Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	884	$1,150	$1.30	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $224,990 Pending 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $224,990 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $224,990 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $224,990 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-02-18
   listed $224,990 Active 873-char remark

   Show marketing remark (873 chars)

   Welcome to 7446 10th Street! The Dama floorplan is a beautiful brick home offering a functional 1,481 square feet two-story design with 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. The main level features an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room flow seamlessly together, creating an inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. A convenient powder bath and foyer add to the home's thoughtful first-floor layout. Upstairs, all bedrooms are thoughtfully positioned for privacy. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom. A centrally located laundry area and smart switch adding everyday convenience, making the Dama a practical and comfortable choice for modern living. Completion date: 6/8/2026. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $504 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,613/yr (+$301/mo · 716.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$504
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$891
• After-tax cash flow: $1,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $224,990 LARMLS