7 Corriedale Pl · Lovettsville, VA 20180

$650,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2019 8,276 sqft lot Est $569k · 14% over $120/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $434k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $395k (39.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $395k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.9% in Lovettsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#105 in VA, #3,260 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Loudoun County Public School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #7 of 131 in VA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,317 units permitted in Loudoun County in 2024 (1,818 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $65k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Loudoun County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$112k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $395,000 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.83%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $569,435
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7 Corriedale Pl	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,867 (0%)	0mo	$650,000	$348	100
93 Eisentown Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,952 (+5%)	21mo	$595,000	$305	49
25 Mills Ct	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,020 (+8%)	18mo	$520,000	$257	45
11833 Purcell Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,644 (-12%)	9mo	$605,000	$368	37
27 Mills Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,128 (+14%)	7mo	$545,000	$256	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $259,146
• Equity at exit: $585,571

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $838,110
• Equity at exit: $1,262,807

Cash invested: $182,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20180

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$812 /mo · $9,750/yr
• Insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$830
• Net cashflow: $-1,492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,838

Max offer price $434,177

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,042	-5% $-1,267	+0% $-1,492	+5% $-1,716	+10% $-1,941
Rent	-10% $-1,804	-5% $-1,648	+0% $-1,492	+5% $-1,335	+10% $-1,179
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,164	-0.5pp $-1,326	base $-1,492	+0.5pp $-1,660	+1.0pp $-1,831

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $162,500
• Closing costs: $19,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38768 Fry Farm Rd Lovettsville, VA	3.0	2.5	1860	$3,950	$2.12	44d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-10
   listed $650,000
2. 2026-05-10
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,410
• − Property taxes: −$9,750
• − Insurance: −$3,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,792
• − Management: −$3,792
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$18,909
• Taxable loss: −$29,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,186
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Loudoun County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102250
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $121,927
• Composite: 67.43/100
• National rank: #379
• State rank: #7 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lovettsville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #3260

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lovettsville, VA
• City population: 7,791
• Population (ZIP): 7,791

Population outlook (Loudoun County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 503,590 people
• By 2030: 568,852 · +13.0%
• By 2040: 701,480 · +39.3%
• By 2050: 828,841 · +64.6%
• By 2075: 1,105,645 · +119.6%
• By 2100: 1,265,472 · +151.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudoun

• 2024 margin: D (+16.3) · D 56.6% · R 40.4% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.0pp toward D · 2008: 8.2pp · 2024: 16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.3 2020: D+25.0 2016: D+16.8 2012: D+4.5 2008: D+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.48%
• Current HPI: 312.1538
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $650,000 BRIGHT MLS