3100 12th St · Bay City, TX 77414

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1950 10,367 sqft lot $105/sqft · 15% below area Est $165k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to invest or custom design it into your own property. Good sized 3 bed/1 bath home in a great corner location. Conveniently located near Bay City schools, restaurants, and grocery stores. Brand new 30-year roof put on in 2025 and is windstorm satisfied. Bring your best offer.

Key facts

• Corner location
• Windstorm satisfied
• Brand new roof

Tags

• CORNER LOCATION
• NEAR BAY CITY SCHOOLS
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• NEAR GROCERY STORES
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• WINDSTORM SATISFIED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 620 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,879
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -15.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2621 Patriot Run	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+6%)	1mo	$235,990	$166	62
5048 Freedom Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+6%)	3mo	$220,990	$157	62
2617 Patriot Run	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+6%)	1mo	$227,990	$162	62
5016 Freedom Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+6%)	3mo	$229,990	$162	61
1121 Live Oak Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+6%)	1mo	$222,990	$158	61
2608 Patriot Run	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+6%)	1mo	$230,990	$164	60
3200 3rd St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-4%)	1mo	$189,000	$148	60
1105 Live Oak Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+6%)	1mo	$227,990	$161	59
2904 5th St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+9%)	1mo	$215,000	$149	58
1109 Live Oak Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+11%)	2mo	$237,990	$160	50
810 Live Oak Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+8%)	3mo	$269,000	$187	48
2508 Old Glory Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+13%)	0mo	$259,900	$172	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-11,792
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,066
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 620
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,522/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	44d	1	0.23mi
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	44d	1	0.58mi
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	44d	1	0.98mi
2604 Avenue K Bay City, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,415	$1.47	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $140,000 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Great opportunity to invest or custom design it into your own property. Good sized 3 bed/1 bath home in a great corner location. Conveniently located near Bay City schools, restaurants, and grocery stores. Brand new 30-year roof put on in 2025 and is windstorm satisfied. Bring your best offer.

17. 2025-03-11
    soldstatus
18. 2025-03-11
    soldstatus
19. 2025-03-10
    soldstatus 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    Great priced 3 bed/1 bath home in a great location in Bay City. This home has huge potential to remodel to your own liking and it sits on a corner lot. The rooms are a good size, utility room with w/ d connections and good-sized backyard. There's also a shed included in the back, and the home is conveniently located near schools, stores, and restaurants. Call for more info or to schedule a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,522 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,522
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,417
• − Management: −$1,417
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$61
• After-tax cash flow: $2,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-10 Sold (MLS) — BCBR

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,522 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.