1006 Swamp Chestnut Loop · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$327,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,417 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition 4,800 sqft lot Est $370k · 11% under $134/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Strauss floorplan is a spacious two-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms. With a thoughtfully designed layout, this 2,403 sq. ft. residence includes a two-car garage, providing ample space for vehicles and storage. The first floor welcomes you with a grand great room adjacent to the dining room, perfect for entertaining and family gatherings. A covered patio extends your living space outdoors. Upstairs, you'll find a generous owner's suite complete with a walk-in closet and private bath, along with a loft area that offers additional space for relaxation or work. The additional bedrooms are well-sized, offering plenty of comfort for family or guests. This plan combines st

Key facts

• Versatile loft space
• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE
• OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $327,989

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Strauss plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 1006 Swamp Chestnut Loop, Lady Lake, FL 32159

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Strauss plan); Active listing

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $328k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $328k).
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,381/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $327,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.53%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,801
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
862 Sunshower Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,417 (0%)	0mo	$312,990	$129	91
998 Swamp Chestnut Loop	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,110 (-13%)	2mo	$322,990	$153	76
839 Sunshower Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0	2,631 (+9%)	4mo	$359,000	$136	74
858 Sunshower Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,281 (-6%)	4mo	$299,990	$132	71
716 Sunshower Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,417 (0%)	9mo	$399,000	$165	70
708 Sunshower Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,110 (-13%)	9mo	$416,143	$197	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-32,268
• Equity at exit: $48,904

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $9,433
• Equity at exit: $28,359

Cash invested: $91,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,720
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$410 /mo · $4,920/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$134
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,039

Max offer price $327,990

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,998
• Closing costs: $9,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	21d	1	1.43mi
1252 Vanderway Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1698	$2,418	$1.42	5d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $134 · $1,608/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $327,990 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $327,990 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $327,990 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $327,990 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $327,990 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $322,989 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $327,989 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $327,989 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $327,989 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $327,989 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,989 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,989 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,989 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,989 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,373
• − Property taxes: −$4,920
• − Insurance: −$1,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,246
• − Management: −$3,246
• − HOA: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$9,542
• Taxable loss: −$2,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$481
• After-tax cash flow: $3,723/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates, including a new roof, exterior siding and paint, HVAC system replacement, and landscaping improvements. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential water intrusion indicated by the satellite image.
• Major exterior siding — Severe wear and discoloration, likely requiring replacement.
• Major flooring — Old and in need of replacement for a better appearance and functionality.
• Major interior walls — Significant wear and discoloration, requiring repainting or replacement.
• Major HVAC system — Old and possibly inefficient, indicated by the satellite image of the condensers.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and overgrown, requiring significant maintenance and improvement for curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs.
• Resale exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior will enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Resale landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and landscaped exterior will increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers.
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, enhancing its resale value.
• Resale interior painting — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance and attract more potential buyers by making it look newer and more appealing.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential water intrusion indicated by the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Severe wear and discoloration, likely requiring replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Old and in need of replacement for a better appearance and functionality.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Significant wear and discoloration, requiring repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Old and possibly inefficient, indicated by the satellite image of the condensers.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and overgrown, requiring significant maintenance and improvement for curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and reduce maintenance costs. ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — A fresh exterior will enhance curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and landscaped exterior will increase the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and functionality, enhancing its resale value. ↑
• Resale interior painting — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance and attract more potential buyers by making it look newer and more appealing. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B