3101 W 20th Ct · Panama City, FL 32405

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1959 10,498 sqft lot $124/sqft · 32% below area Est $256k · 35% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CASH SALE ONLY. Foundation Repair Required. INVESTOR OPPOUTUNITY. Three-bedroom, 2 bath home with an apartment which measures 533 sq. ft. and IS NOT included in the sq. ft. measurement. Home is located in the heart of St. Andrew's which is a walking revitalized waterfront community offering shopping, restaurants, public boat ramps and a farmers' market and so much more. This is a perfect opportunity to purchase and remodel and make this property your own and have an income producing unit. The home has known foundation issues Alpha Foundation's has inspected the house and the report is available upon request. Buyers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence and obtain independent eva

Key facts

• Farmers market
• Public boat ramps
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• PUBLIC BOAT RAMPS
• FARMERS MARKET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: $705 annual tax (2025)
• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Zoned for single-family residential
• Exterior features: Porch; Screened porch; Chain link fencing; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Includes primary bedroom; Other bedrooms present
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Total of 8 rooms; Dining room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.7% in Panama City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.48%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,633
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -35.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1812 Foster Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-1%)	3mo	$220,000	$167	74
1712 Foster Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+3%)	4mo	$325,000	$238	67
2703 W 18th St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-8%)	6mo	$246,000	$202	61
2200 W 20th St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,412 (+6%)	1mo	$115,000	$81	58
1717 Arthur Ave	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,224 (-8%)	1mo	$128,000	$105	57
1615 Molitor Ave	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-8%)	7mo	$262,000	$214	55
2333 Cincinnati Ave	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,489 (+12%)	2mo	$325,000	$218	55
3942 W 21st Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-10%)	7mo	$237,000	$198	50
3702 W 22nd St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,521 (+14%)	5mo	$122,050	$80	50
3915 W 20th Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-13%)	7mo	$278,000	$239	48
2400 W 16th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+11%)	6mo	$255,000	$172	44
1814 Mound Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,158 (-13%)	4mo	$100,000	$86	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,184
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $16,997
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $497	-5% $450	+0% $403	+5% $357	+10% $310
Rent	-10% $264	-5% $334	+0% $403	+5% $473	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $486	-0.5pp $445	base $403	+0.5pp $361	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3722 Burnham Way Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	22d	1	0.41mi
1710 Drake Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,850	$1.64	22d	1	0.45mi
1804 Arthur Ave Panama City, FL	3.0	1.5	1044	$1,795	$1.72	22d	1	0.55mi
4105 W 22nd St Unit 4105 Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	22d	1	0.65mi
1913 Laurel Ave Unit A Panama City, FL	2.0	2.5	1238	$1,725	$1.39	14d	1	0.66mi
4324 W 20th St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1000	$1,630	$1.63	14d	12	0.93mi
4455 W 19th St #17 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,400	$1.27	22d	1	0.94mi
2602 W 12th St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,095	$1.50	22d	1	1.07mi
2100 W Beach Dr Unit F102 Panama City, FL	2.0	1.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	22d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 21 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 20 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 19 DOM
20. 2026-05-08
    listed $199,999 Active 535-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 94.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $2,242
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$538
• After-tax cash flow: $4,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panama City, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $199,999 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.