2434 Barclay St · Baltimore, MD 21218

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · Townhouse · 1 Days on market

Built 1920 2,380 sqft lot Est $213k · 44% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on market. 3 Bedroom 1 bath renovated home in Barclay redevelopment area.

Key facts

• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Fee simple ownership
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Estimated year built
• Construction: Brick exterior with brick front; Asphalt roof; Other foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Full, unfinished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $654 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 325 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.39%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
728 Bartlett Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	2mo	$40,000	$36	76
2956 Greenmount Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,130 (-2%)	1mo	$209,395	$185	68
459 W 24th St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,144 (-0%)	1mo	$224,500	$196	66
616 Montpelier St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-3%)	2mo	$145,000	$129	63
616 E 30th St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-5%)	1mo	$65,000	$60	60
2602 Miles Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,084 (-6%)	1mo	$240,000	$221	59
2821 Remington Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,170 (+2%)	1mo	$265,000	$226	58
2713 Hampden Ave	0.65mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,138 (-1%)	1mo	$320,000	$281	57
1234 E Lafayette Ave E	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,225 (+6%)	2mo	$219,000	$179	48
1120 Montpelier St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,260 (+10%)	2mo	$70,000	$56	47
406 W 23rd St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-12%)	1mo	$247,000	$245	46
2545 Cecil Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,318 (+15%)	1mo	$215,000	$163	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $19,768
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $60,984
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21218

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 325
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,289/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $654

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2516 Barclay St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	16d	1	0.14mi
2300 N Calvert St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	3d	2	0.16mi
2315 St Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	579	$1,595	$2.75	2d	5	0.17mi
2440 Saint Paul St Unit 4E Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	891	$1,625	$1.82	44d	1	0.20mi
2535 Greenmount Ave Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	44d	1	0.20mi
411 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$2,200	$1.64	24d	1	0.21mi
400 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	20d	1	0.23mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,875	$1.40	24d	1	0.24mi
428 E Lorraine Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1344	$1,875	$1.40	44d	1	0.24mi
450 E Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,695	$1.26	44d	1	0.25mi
646 Cokesbury Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,299	$1.08	44d	1	0.26mi
2637 Saint Paul St Unit 1A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	4d	1	0.30mi
402 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1436	$2,200	$1.53	44d	1	0.37mi
519 E 28th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	4d	1	0.40mi
436 Ilchester Ave Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	0.42mi
2821 Mathews St Unit 27-668 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	730	$1,050	$1.44	24d	1	0.46mi
2641 N Howard St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1344	$2,800	$2.08	24d	1	0.47mi
2752 Maryland Ave Unit 2ND FLOOR Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	18d	1	0.49mi
325 W Lorraine Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1470	$3,150	$2.14	4d	1	0.51mi
1711 Latrobe St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,700	$1.70	24d	1	0.52mi
1708 Latrobe St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	750	$2,250	$3.00	24d	1	0.52mi
1704 Saint Paul St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1141	$1,550	$1.36	4d	1	0.57mi
448 Pitman Pl Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	940	$2,145	$2.28	24d	1	0.59mi
3012 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,100	$1.10	18d	1	0.60mi
3026 Mathews St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	996	$1,350	$1.36	15d	1	0.62mi
412 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,700	$1.55	24d	1	0.62mi
456 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1450	$1,850	$1.28	44d	1	0.63mi
458 E Federal St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1300	$1,850	$1.42	4d	1	0.63mi
210 Federal St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	20d	1	0.64mi
2310 Aisquith St Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	4d	1	0.66mi
3126 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,770	$2.53	3d	1	0.68mi
3130 Guilford Ave Apt B Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,790	$2.56	18d	1	0.68mi
616 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	11d	1	0.69mi
936 Montpelier St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,450	$1.15	24d	1	0.69mi
304 W North Ave Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	804	$890	$1.11	24d	5	0.70mi
315 W 30th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1250	$2,450	$1.96	16d	1	0.72mi
315 W 30th St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1200	$2,450	$2.04	18d	1	0.72mi
3221 Guilford Ave Apt A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1025	$2,925	$2.85	18d	1	0.75mi
2606 Cecil Ave Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.75mi
3201 Saint Paul St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1532	$3,200	$2.09	3d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 252-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,298 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,289
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,751
• − Management: −$1,751
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $6,287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,509
• After-tax cash flow: $6,343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 44,014
• Household income: $62,488
• Rent vs Own: 51.9% rent · 48.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2564.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -463.14%
• Current HPI: 292.3986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.63%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+756.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-07-20 Sold (MLS) $126,000 MRIS
• 2007-05-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-05-10 Listed $130,000 MRIS
• 2007-01-31 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MRIS
• 2007-01-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-01-08 Listed $60,000 MRIS
• 1984-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,289 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.