202 Head Of Pond Rd · Water Mill, NY 11976

$5,495,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 4,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2015 1.10 ac lot $1143/sqft · at area comps Est $6025k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your Hamptons sanctuary in this meticulously customized five-bedroom, six-bath residence, privately positioned at the end of a 400-foot driveway amid impeccably landscaped grounds. A striking double-height foyer welcomes you with its elegant staircase illuminated by natural light, leading to the home's centerpiece: an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that flows effortlessly onto an expansive bluestone terrace through walls of glass -- an entertainer's dream for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The chef's kitchen showcases honed marble countertops and premium appliances, including a Sub-Zero refrigerator, dual Bosch dishwashers, wine cooler, and Wolf range and double ovens. The fireside den and an inviting sitting room with custom built-in banquette offer pocket doors that allow for versatile configurations. A substantial junior ensuite bedroom completes the main level. The second floor offers a primary suite with private deck, gas fireplace, dual walk-in closets, and spa-inspired bath featuring twin vanities, soaking tub, and a capacious shower. Three additional guest bedrooms feature brand-new Waterworks baths, while a large sunny multipurpose room offers flexibility as a studio, playroom, or potential sixth bedroom. Outdoors, the private sun-soaked grounds present expansive lawns framed by mature hedging and pretty roses and hydrangeas. At the heart of the outdoor living space, a 20x40-foot heated saltwater gunite pool and spa are surrounded by covered and open bluestone patios for al fresco dining and relaxation. Exceptional outdoor amenities include a custom kitchen, mahogany shower, built-in firepit, and freestanding Almost Heaven sauna. All this, just two miles to Southampton Village and the pristine beaches of Water Mill.

Key facts

• Fireside den
• Premium appliances
• Double-height foyer

Tags

• DOUBLE-HEIGHT FOYER
• EXPANSIVE BLUESTONE TERRACE
• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• HONED MARBLE COUNTERTOPS
• PREMIUM APPLIANCES
• FIRESIDE DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $5.50M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14k ($166k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($58k rent vs $5.50M).
• Recommended offer: $4.84M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $58,144/mo this rent would consume 387% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $512k of equity ($38k loan paydown + $474k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.54M cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$821k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($4.84M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $2.95M; list at $5.50M implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,835,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.77%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $6,025,000
• List price: $5,495,000
• Delta: -8.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Wood Edge Ct	0.68mi	5/5.0	5,378 (+12%)	2mo	$6,025,000	$1,120	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.63% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $3,671,794
• Equity at exit: $4,412,791

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.01×
• Total profit: $10,786,668
• Equity at exit: $8,996,731

Cash invested: $1,538,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11976

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Rents YoY: 30.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $58,144 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$28,816
• Tax from tax record: −$1,014 /mo · $12,174/yr
• Insurance: −$2,290
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$12,210
• Net cashflow: $13,814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $40,659

Max offer price $5,495,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,373,750
• Closing costs: $164,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Millfarm Ln Southampton, NY	5.0	5.5	4500	$25,000	$5.56	11d	1	0.67mi
64 Water Mill Towd Rd Water Mill, NY	4.0	4.0	3800	$55,000	$14.47	44d	1	0.72mi
17 Clearview Farm Rd Southampton, NY	4.0	4.5	4000	$28,000	$7.00	5d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $5,495,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $5,495,000 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-01-13
    listed $5,495,000 Active 1779-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1779 chars)

    Discover your Hamptons sanctuary in this meticulously customized five-bedroom, six-bath residence, privately positioned at the end of a 400-foot driveway amid impeccably landscaped grounds. A striking double-height foyer welcomes you with its elegant staircase illuminated by natural light, leading to the home's centerpiece: an open-concept living, dining, and kitchen area that flows effortlessly onto an expansive bluestone terrace through walls of glass -- an entertainer's dream for seamless indoor-outdoor living. The chef's kitchen showcases honed marble countertops and premium appliances, including a Sub-Zero refrigerator, dual Bosch dishwashers, wine cooler, and Wolf range and double ovens. The fireside den and an inviting sitting room with custom built-in banquette offer pocket doors that allow for versatile configurations. A substantial junior ensuite bedroom completes the main level. The second floor offers a primary suite with private deck, gas fireplace, dual walk-in closets, and spa-inspired bath featuring twin vanities, soaking tub, and a capacious shower. Three additional guest bedrooms feature brand-new Waterworks baths, while a large sunny multipurpose room offers flexibility as a studio, playroom, or potential sixth bedroom. Outdoors, the private sun-soaked grounds present expansive lawns framed by mature hedging and pretty roses and hydrangeas. At the heart of the outdoor living space, a 20x40-foot heated saltwater gunite pool and spa are surrounded by covered and open bluestone patios for al fresco dining and relaxation. Exceptional outdoor amenities include a custom kitchen, mahogany shower, built-in firepit, and freestanding Almost Heaven sauna. All this, just two miles to Southampton Village and the pristine beaches of Water Mill.

16. 2016-11-15
    soldstatus $2,950,000
17. 2016-06-30
    historical
18. 2016-03-16
    listed $3,345,000
19. 2016-01-10
    historical
20. 2015-11-18
    listed $3,495,000
21. 2015-11-06
    historical
22. 2014-11-06
    listed $3,495,000
23. 2013-10-30
    soldstatus $980,000
24. 2013-02-28
    historical
25. 2012-08-28
    listed $1,199,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,174 · $1,014/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $52,520 · $4,377/mo
• Expected delta: +$40,346/yr (+$3,362/mo · 331.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $697,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$307,805
• − Property taxes: −$12,174
• − Insurance: −$27,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$55,819
• − Management: −$55,819
• − Depreciation: −$159,855
• Taxable income: $78,787
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,909
• After-tax cash flow: $146,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

Livability — Water Mill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #410
• US rank: #7088

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Water Mill, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 2,952
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,952
• Household income: $180,250
• Rent vs Own: 6.8% rent · 93.2% own

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Scotch-Irish 7% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Current HPI: 540.0967
• Rent YoY: ▲ 30.05%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+358.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $5,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $2,950,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-16 Listed $3,345,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-18 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-06 Listed $3,495,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $980,000 Public Records
• 2013-02-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-28 Listed $1,199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $12,174 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.