405 W Jefferson St · Gould, AR 71643

$129,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,282 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1978 $39/sqft · 38% above area Est $94k · 38% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3,200 square foot home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and practicality in a peaceful, rural setting. Featuring a durable, metal roof, this property not only boasts great curb appeal but is also built to stand the test of time. Whether you're looking for ample living space or a country retreat, this home offers it all. This home is located in a rural development area for possible 0 down payment. 9 Additional lots available also!

Key facts

• Ample living space
• Metal roof
• Country retreat

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• RURAL SETTING
• AMPLE LIVING SPACE
• COUNTRY RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (29.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#400 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dumas School District (town): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #215 of 238 in AR (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary School (238 students, 100% FRL); Dumas Junior High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #144 of 201 statewide, top 72%, 236 students, 100% FRL); Dumas High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #261 of 292 statewide, top 90%, 314 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 75% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $129k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,312 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.08%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,566
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 37.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Hwy 65 N	0.50mi	3/2.0	3,058 (-7%)	8mo	$11,000	$4	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $2,196
• Equity at exit: $58,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $27,215
• Equity at exit: $89,391

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71643

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,191/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$277
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,590

Max offer price $91,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-140	-5% $-177	+0% $-213	+5% $-250	+10% $-286
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-265	+0% $-213	+5% $-161	+10% $-109
Rate	-1.0pp $-148	-0.5pp $-181	base $-213	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 117 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 108 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 107 DOM
18. 2026-02-12
    listed $129,000 New Listing 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    This spacious 3,200 square foot home offers the perfect blend of comfort, style, and practicality in a peaceful, rural setting. Featuring a durable, metal roof, this property not only boasts great curb appeal but is also built to stand the test of time. Whether you're looking for ample living space or a country retreat, this home offers it all. This home is located in a rural development area for possible 0 down payment. 9 Additional lots available also!

19. 2025-10-05
    historical
20. 2025-04-29
    price $129,000
21. 2025-04-04
    listed $149,900 New Listing
22. 2007-08-24
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,191
• − Insurance: −$5,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,267
• − Management: −$1,267
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$4,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,111
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,449/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dumas School District
• NCES district ID: 0505500
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,945
• Composite: 15.97/100
• National rank: #9245
• State rank: #215 of 238 in AR

Livability — Gould

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #400
• US rank: #23105

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gould, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,241

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,516 people
• By 2030: 13,354 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 13,200 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 13,170 · -2.6%
• By 2075: 12,581 · -6.9%
• By 2100: 10,008 · -26.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 39% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.1) · D 24.1% · R 74.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -50.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.1 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+31.5 2012: R+20.8 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+65.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $129,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $129,000 CARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $149,900 CARMLS
• 2007-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,191 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.