Kitson Plan · Haines City, FL 33844

$304,890

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily · 160 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new three-bedroom home delivers convenient single-story living with a modern, low-maintenance design. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas for easy everyday living and multitasking. Two secondary bedrooms share a private hallway with a full bathroom upon entry, and the generous owner's suite provides a secluded retreat at the back of the home, complete with a private full bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lavish owner's suite
• Modern design
• Full bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• MODERN DESIGN
• LOW-MAINTENANCE DESIGN
• LAVISH OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $304,890 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $305,216.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-376 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $219,342 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,216
• List price: $304,890
• Delta: -0.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2279 Jennio Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+12%)	1mo	$275,390	$172	69
3542 Roden Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+17%)	1mo	$320,990	$192	61
5365 Willow Crk	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	1mo	$300,990	$200	59
5313 Willow Crk	0.77mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+4%)	0mo	$283,300	$191	58
5309 Willow Crk	0.78mi	3/2.0	1,483 (+4%)	1mo	$285,900	$193	57
4457 Riverbend Blvd	0.87mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+13%)	0mo	$297,999	$185	42
4422 Riverbend Blvd	0.86mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+13%)	0mo	$298,426	$185	42
5393 Willow Crk	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+17%)	0mo	$316,900	$190	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-77,390
• Equity at exit: $45,509

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-113,901
• Equity at exit: $26,390

Cash invested: $85,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 37 active · 39 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.1 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $297,326 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 37 d
• This list price: 65% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,601
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,578/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,670

Max offer price $250,740

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-166	-5% $-271	+0% $-376	+5% $-482	+10% $-587
Rent	-10% $-550	-5% $-463	+0% $-376	+5% $-290	+10% $-203
Rate	-1.0pp $-223	-0.5pp $-299	base $-376	+0.5pp $-456	+1.0pp $-536

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,304
• Closing costs: $9,156
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2990 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1378	$2,300	$1.67	7d	1	0.05mi
2974 Cherry Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	0d	1	0.07mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	119d	1	0.26mi
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,130	$1.14	73d	1	0.27mi
4045 Old Mill Rd Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,150	$1.15	9d	1	0.28mi
3841 Amers Loop Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1733	$2,150	$1.24	2d	1	0.31mi
2526 Aveeno Ave Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	9d	1	0.32mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,150	$1.45	98d	1	0.34mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,099	$1.15	119d	1	0.65mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$2,200	$1.71	65d	1	0.72mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,095	$1.15	119d	1	0.75mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,100	$1.14	9d	1	0.75mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,300	$1.26	110d	1	0.75mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,850	$1.20	119d	1	0.81mi
4226 Hillock Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1548	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.83mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1720	$1,800	$1.05	119d	1	0.88mi
3840 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,950	$1.26	7d	1	0.96mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,795	$1.06	6d	1	1.01mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,795	$1.06	9d	1	1.01mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,200	$1.20	119d	1	1.01mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,925	$1.13	9d	1	1.03mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	98d	1	1.03mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1677	$1,775	$1.06	73d	1	1.06mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,999	$1.09	119d	1	1.15mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	9d	1	1.15mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,050	$1.10	73d	1	1.15mi
1910 Pond Pine Ct Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1821	$2,199	$1.21	9d	1	1.30mi
1186 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,200	$1.25	73d	1	1.32mi
1202 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,175	$1.36	9d	1	1.34mi
2147 Doe Run Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,250	$1.36	9d	1	1.34mi
1610 Merrimack Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,735	$1.54	9d	1	1.36mi
318 Lawson Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1605	$2,200	$1.37	0d	1	1.36mi
339 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,795	$1.40	73d	1	1.40mi
501 Sea Turtle Ln Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	9d	1	1.40mi
351 Towns Cir Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,900	$1.48	9d	1	1.41mi
537 Sea Turtle Ln Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,350	$1.63	9d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City, FL 33844Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $288,890

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces total)
• Home design: New construction plan named KitsonSingle-family home (plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,424 (per listing)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitson plan kitchen (details per builder)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-specific layout)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $304,890 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $304,890 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $304,890 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $304,890 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $304,890 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $304,890 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $304,890 Active 153 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $304,890 Active 152 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   price $304,890 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $303,890 Active 151 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $303,890 Active 150 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $303,890 Active 149 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $303,890 Active 148 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $303,890 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $303,890 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $303,890 Active 140 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $302,890 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $302,890 Active 136 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $302,890 Active 135 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $302,890 Active 134 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $302,890 Active 133 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $302,890 Active 132 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $302,890 Active 131 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $302,890 Active 130 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $302,890 Active 129 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $302,890 Active 128 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $302,890 Active 127 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $302,890 Active 126 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $302,890 Active 125 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $302,890 Active 124 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $302,890 Active 123 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $302,890 Active 122 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $302,890 Active 121 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $302,890 Active 120 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $302,890 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $302,890 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $302,890 Active 116 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $302,890 Active 115 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $302,890 Active 114 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $302,890 Active 113 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $302,890 Active 112 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $302,890 Active 111 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $302,890 Active 110 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $302,890 Active 109 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $302,890 Active 106 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $302,890 Active 105 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $302,890 Active 104 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $302,890 Active 103 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $302,890 Active 101 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $302,890 Active 99 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,097
• − Property taxes: −$4,578
• − Insurance: −$1,526
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,106
• − Management: −$2,106
• − Depreciation: −$8,879
• Taxable loss: −$9,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,393
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern, single-story home offers a spacious and well-maintained interior with a good condition exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained garden can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can improve convenience and attract buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen backsplash — A stylish backsplash can enhance the kitchen's appeal and resale value. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and attract renters looking for modern amenities. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 2506 Aveeno Ave, Haines City, FL 33844Listing provided by Zillow
• Financial info: List price $288,890

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 parking spaces (2 garage spaces total)
• Home design: New construction plan named KitsonSingle-family home (plan)Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,424 (per listing)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitson plan kitchen (details per builder)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (plan-specific layout)