3950 W River Rd · Waterville, ME 04330

$200,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,110 sqft · MultiFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1900 1.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +7.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 6 room, 1110 sq. ft. Farmhouse with first floor bedroom and full bath. Second floor has 2 additional bedrooms, a half bath and playroom. Located just over the Sidney town line with Waterville and less than half a mile from I-95 interchange, golfing and Thomas College.

Key facts

• Nice porch
• Metal roof
• Private open yard

Tags

• PRIVATE OPEN YARD
• NICE PORCH
• METAL ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TWO PELLET STOVES
• ONE FLOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No pet restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking with space for 1–4 vehicles
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1900
• Construction: Wood frame with vinyl siding; Metal roof; Stone and brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Porch; Rural, wooded and level lot; Near turnpike/interstate and near town; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on first floor; Bedroom 2 on second floor; Bedroom 3 on second floor; Bedroom 4 on second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Pellet stove
• Interior features: One-floor living; First-floor bedroom; Bathtub; Main-level laundry; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#34 in ME, #3,498 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• RSU 18 (rural): math 88% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #36 of 112 in ME (top 32%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 55 active listings in the ZIP; 460 units permitted in Kennebec County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,018/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 760% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kennebec County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $200k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $194,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.84%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $45,727
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $162,411
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Maine: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Portland has rent control referendum (2020); strong habitability; security deposit caps.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 04330

• Home prices YoY: -4.7%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,675/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $1,112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 58%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$3,018
Total (2 units)			$3,018

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $229,000 Active 597-char remark
18. 2026-04-20
    price $229,000
19. 2020-11-04
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Spacious 6 room, 1110 sq. ft. Farmhouse with first floor bedroom and full bath. Second floor has 2 additional bedrooms, a half bath and playroom. Located just over the Sidney town line with Waterville and less than half a mile from I-95 interchange, golfing and Thomas College.

20. 2020-10-02
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Spacious 6 room, 1110 sq. ft. Farmhouse with first floor bedroom and full bath. Second floor has 2 additional bedrooms, a half bath and playroom. Located just over the Sidney town line with Waterville and less than half a mile from I-95 interchange, golfing and Thomas College.

21. 2020-09-04
    listed $55,100 Active

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Spacious 6 room, 1110 sq. ft. Farmhouse with first floor bedroom and full bath. Second floor has 2 additional bedrooms, a half bath and playroom. Located just over the Sidney town line with Waterville and less than half a mile from I-95 interchange, golfing and Thomas College.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ME · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,198 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$522/yr (+$44/mo · 31.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,216
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,675
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,897
• − Management: −$2,897
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $10,725
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,574
• After-tax cash flow: $10,776/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: RSU 18
• NCES district ID: 2314779
• Math proficiency: 88% ▲ 53.00%
• Reading proficiency: 89% ▲ 32.00%
• Median HH income: $55,125
• Composite: 75.2/100
• National rank: #139
• State rank: #36 of 112 in ME

Livability — Waterville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #3498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kennebec County · 54,560 people
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• Population (ZIP): 26,690
• Household income: $54,775
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 760.0

Population outlook (Kennebec County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,421 people
• By 2030: 111,852 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 103,757 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 95,710 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 78,172 · -32.3%
• By 2100: 59,500 · -48.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Slovak 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kennebec

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 50.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: 14.8pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+3.7 2012: D+13.5 2008: D+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.46%
• Current HPI: 353.9463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Metro: Augusta-Waterville, ME
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+263.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $200,000 MREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $229,000 MREIS
• 2026-05-05 Delisted — MREIS
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — MREIS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $229,000 MREIS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — MREIS
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — MREIS
• 2025-12-10 Contingent — MREIS
• 2025-12-05 Listed $247,000 MREIS
• 2020-11-04 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MREIS
• 2020-10-02 Pending — MREIS
• 2020-09-04 Listed $55,100 MREIS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,675 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.