Is 36563 Frangipani Dr in French Valley, CA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.4% cap rate and $-898/mo modeled cash flow at a $570,335 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 36563 Frangipani Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $4,046/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 42.92

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Appreciation +10.0/10.0
ARV discount +8.1/15.0
Cash flow +6.8/30.0
Schools +5.7/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.3/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
DSCR +1.0/10.0

$570,335

36563 Frangipani Dr · French Valley, CA 92596

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,149 sqft · Townhouse · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $265/sqft · at area comps Est $578k · at est. $153/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION! Ready for Quick Move-in! Includes Upgraded Flooring! Refrigerator, Washer, & Dryer included with purchase! This new two-story townhome delivers modern flexibility with a first-floor bedroom and full bathroom—perfect for overnight guests, aging parents or anyone who appreciates main-level living. The first floor centers around an inviting Great Room that connects naturally with the dining area and kitchen, creating an ideal space for family gatherings and entertaining. The second floor is host to a tranquil owner's suite featuring luxurious bathroom and walk-in closet, plus three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

New construction
Full bathroom
Walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $570k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-898 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $440k (22.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $405k (29.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $405k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in French Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: French Valley Elementary (880 students, 24% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $404,581 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.40%
Cash-on-cash: -6.75%
DSCR: 0.70
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $577,735
List price: $570,335
Delta: -1.28%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36599 Frangipani Dr	0.01mi	5/3.0	2,149 (0%)	0mo	$572,335	$266	99
36588 Frangipani Dr	0.04mi	5/3.0	2,149 (0%)	1mo	$580,335	$270	97
36617 Frangipani Dr	0.03mi	5/3.0	2,149 (0%)	2mo	$577,735	$269	97
31759 Delfina Way	1.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,016 (-6%)	12mo	$512,900	$254	38
36373 Cinzia Ln	0.90mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,016 (-6%)	15mo	$495,000	$246	35
36325 Antoinette Ln	1.07mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,016 (-6%)	16mo	$499,990	$248	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 18.7%
Equity multiple: 2.51×
Total profit: $241,707
Equity at exit: $513,803

10-year hold

IRR: 16.8%
Equity multiple: 5.61×
Total profit: $735,855
Equity at exit: $1,108,035

Cash invested: $159,694 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 1 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 2.0 mo (50%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $575,335 ($268/sqft)
Median days on market: 15 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +0.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

Home prices YoY: 3.9%
Rents YoY: -0.8%
Active inventory: 509
Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $4,046 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,991
Tax est. 1.5%: −$713 /mo · $8,555/yr
Insurance: −$238
HOA: −$153
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$850
Net cashflow: $-898

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,183

Max offer price $440,354

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-504	-5% $-701	+0% $-898	+5% $-1,095	+10% $-1,292
Rent	-10% $-1,218	-5% $-1,058	+0% $-898	+5% $-738	+10% $-579
Rate	-1.0pp $-611	-0.5pp $-753	base $-898	+0.5pp $-1,046	+1.0pp $-1,196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $142,584
Closing costs: $17,110
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36599 Frangipani Dr Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2149	$3,300	$1.54	3d	1	0.03mi
36173 Saint Claire Ct Winchester, CA	6.0	3.5	2905	$6,000	$2.07	1d	1	0.51mi
36173 Saint Claire Ct Winchester, CA	6.0	3.5	2905	$6,000	$2.07	184d	1	0.51mi
33072 Toledo Bend Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2590	$3,600	$1.39	6d	1	0.61mi
31859 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,695	$1.61	63d	1	0.91mi
31799 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1862	$3,200	$1.72	23d	1	0.97mi
31799 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1861	$3,200	$1.72	7d	1	0.97mi
31799 Woodbank Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1862	$2,999	$1.61	3d	1	0.97mi
37019 Running Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	5.0	2.5	2189	$3,500	$1.60	10d	1	1.05mi
36073 Arras Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2877	$3,450	$1.20	10d	1	1.09mi
36367 Sicily Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2873	$3,249	$1.13	10d	1	1.11mi
37184 Running Springs Rd Murrieta, CA	4.0	2.0	1991	$3,500	$1.76	129d	1	1.13mi
33056 St. Emilion Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	2792	$3,300	$1.18	10d	1	1.17mi
36264 Capri Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1999	$3,300	$1.65	159d	1	1.18mi
32180 Yosemite St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2660	$3,395	$1.28	63d	1	1.19mi
32561 Cherokee Rose St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,595	$1.20	10d	1	1.21mi
32561 Cherokee Rose St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2998	$3,595	$1.20	75d	1	1.21mi
31719 Poppy St Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2708	$3,400	$1.26	10d	1	1.25mi
31431 Gironde Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	2069	$3,400	$1.64	37d	1	1.37mi
35222 Azalea Ln Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2784	$3,900	$1.40	119d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Part of the Amber Valley associationMonthly association fee of $153Association amenities include a playground and picnic areaCommunity features include curbs, gutters, street lighting, sidewalks, and a park

Exterior

Parking: Attached two-car garageDirect garage accessDriveway
Security: Carbon monoxide detectorSmoke detector
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedTelephone on propertyUnderground utilities
Home design: Two-story homeEntry on the first level
Construction: Frame and stucco constructionTile roofConcrete slab foundation
Exterior features: Covered porchFlat lot

Interior

Kitchen: Garbage disposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorFreestanding electric rangeKitchen islandGranite countersWalk-in pantryKitchen open to the family roomBreakfast counter/barFormal dining room
Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
Bathrooms: Three full bathroomsBathtubShowerShower-over-tubDouble sinks in the primary bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central furnaceCentral cooling
Interior features: Open floor planRecessed lightingWalk-in closet
Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room on the upper levelWasher and dryer included

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $570,335 Active 3 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $570,335 Active 2 DOM
2026-11-06

remarks 689-char remark
2026-11-06

pricedays on marketlisting id $570,335 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $580,335 Active 107 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $580,335 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $580,335 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $580,335 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $580,335 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $580,335 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $580,335 Active 101 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $580,335 Active 95 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $580,335 Active 94 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $580,335 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $580,335 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $580,335 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $580,335 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $580,335 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $580,335 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $580,335 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $580,335 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $580,335 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $580,335 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $580,335 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $580,335 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $580,335 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $580,335 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $580,335 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $580,335 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $580,335 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $580,335 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $580,335 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $580,335 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $580,335 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $580,335 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $580,335 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $580,335 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $580,335 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $580,335 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $580,335 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $580,335 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $580,335 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $580,335 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $580,335 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $580,335 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $580,335 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $580,335 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $580,335 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $580,335 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $580,335 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $48,550
− Mortgage interest: −$31,948
− Property taxes: −$8,555
− Insurance: −$2,852
− Repairs & maintenance: −$3,884
− Management: −$3,884
− HOA: −$1,836
− Depreciation: −$16,592
Taxable loss: −$21,000

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,040
After-tax cash flow: $-5,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern two-story townhome is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a great layout with a first-floor bedroom and full bathroom, making it perfect for overnight guests or main-level living. The home has a good curb appeal and is ready for a fresh paint job and some minor updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Updating the flooring to a more modern style — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑
Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

Zoned Schools

Elementary Susan La Vorgna Elementary Middle Bella Vista Middle High Chaparral High

Schools (NCES district)

District: Temecula Valley Unified
NCES district ID: 0600028
Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
Median HH income: $84,032
Composite: 57.48/100
National rank: #2264
State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 59/100

Livability — French Valley

Score: 59/100
State rank: #655
US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: French Valley, CA
County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Population (ZIP): 38,981
Household income: $132,538
Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
Current HPI: 332.169
Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	27	$1,492B
#4 Apple Cupertino $391.0B #7 Alphabet Mountain View $350.0B #22 Meta Platforms Menlo Park $164.5B #31 NVIDIA Santa Clara $130.5B #83 Cisco Systems San Jose $53.8B #84 HP Inc Palo Alto $53.6B #86 Intel Santa Clara $53.1B #88 Broadcom Palo Alto $52.4B #109 Qualcomm San Diego $39.0B #112 Salesforce San Francisco $38.4B #140 Applied Materials Santa Clara $27.2B #155 AMD Santa Clara $22.7B #330 Intuit Mountain View $16.3B #242 Lam Research Fremont $15.8B #252 Western Digital San Jose $13.0B #366 ServiceNow Santa Clara $11.0B #282 KLA Corporation Milpitas $10.8B #405 Workday Pleasanton $7.9B #302 Arista Networks Santa Clara $6.7B #365 NetApp San Jose $6.5B #352 Synopsys Sunnyvale $6.1B #331 Autodesk San Francisco $6.0B #395 Juniper Networks Sunnyvale $5.6B #403 Cadence Design Systems San Jose $4.6B #430 Veeva Systems Pleasanton $2.4B #397 Teradata San Diego $1.8B #461 Dolby Laboratories San Francisco $1.3B
Financial Services	3	$174B
#33 Wells Fargo San Francisco $125.4B #272 Visa San Francisco $35.9B #308 LPL Financial Holdings San Diego $12.3B
Retail	3	$44B
#162 Ross Stores Dublin $20.9B #231 Gap San Francisco $15.6B #323 Williams-Sonoma San Francisco $7.7B
Insurance	3	$26B
#241 Pacific Life Newport Beach $13.4B #293 First American Financial Santa Ana $7.7B #482 Mercury General Los Angeles $5.2B
Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
#46 Walt Disney Burbank $91.4B #263 Live Nation Entertainment Beverly Hills $23.2B
Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B
#126 Amgen Thousand Oaks $33.3B #137 Gilead Sciences Foster City $28.4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-11-05 Listed $570,335 CRMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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