303 Trigg Ave · Blackwater, MO 65322

$124,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 884 sqft · Other public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1930 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Check out these freshly finished hardwood floors in this cute bungalow close to the heart of Blackwater & its adorable downtown area. This home still has updated wiring, lighting, HVAC, and windows. Located on a huge lot with a shed & detached garage! It is also walking distance to the local bank, cafe, coffee shop, and the K-8th grade Blackwater School! Make your appointment today!

Key facts

• Updated wiring
• Updated windows
• Updated hvac

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED WIRING
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• UPDATED HVAC
• UPDATED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($243/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#559 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
• Blackwater R-II (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #381 of 535 in MO (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Cooper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $766 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Cooper County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $125k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,183 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $1,214
• Equity at exit: $40,146

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $23,063
• Equity at exit: $51,472

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65322

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $952 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $296/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $926

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $56	+0% $20	+5% $-15	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $-17	+0% $20	+5% $58	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $52	base $20	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $124,900
3. 2026-02-25
   price $136,000
4. 2026-01-08
   listed $145,000 Active
5. 2023-10-16
   soldstatus
6. 2007-04-18
   soldstatus $25,000
7. 2007-01-23
   soldstatus
8. 2000-01-22
   soldstatus
9. 1982-05-17
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $296 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$915/yr (+$76/mo · 309.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$296
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$914
• − Management: −$914
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$1,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$469
• After-tax cash flow: $712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blackwater R-II
• NCES district ID: 2905190
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $45,694
• Composite: 32.57/100
• National rank: #10820
• State rank: #381 of 535 in MO

Livability — Blackwater

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #559
• US rank: #20358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blackwater, MO
• Population (ZIP): 704

Population outlook (Cooper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,611 people
• By 2030: 17,665 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 17,445 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 16,916 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 15,807 · -10.2%
• By 2100: 13,148 · -25.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cooper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.8) · D 26.6% · R 72.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -23.8pp · 2024: -45.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.8 2020: R+46.3 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Current HPI: 101.747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+399.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — CMBR
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $124,900 CMBR
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $136,000 CMBR
• 2026-01-08 Listed $145,000 CMBR
• 2023-10-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2007-01-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-01-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $296 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.