6904 20th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,531 sqft · Townhouse public records · 136 Days on market

Built 2019 3,139 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Incredible investment opportunity!! This 3-bed, 2-bath townhouse in Bushland Springs on a quiet clu-de-sac boasts high-end finishes, great condition, and prime rental potential. With 5 townhouses available in a row, it's a rare opportunity near shopping, Frenship schools, and just minutes from Texas Tech & LCU. Perfect for building your portfolio!

Key facts

• Minutes from lcu
• Near shopping
• High-end finishes

Tags

• QUIET CLU-DE-SAC
• HIGH-END FINISHES
• PRIME RENTAL POTENTIAL
• NEAR SHOPPING
• MINUTES FROM TEXAS TECH
• MINUTES FROM LCU

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-375/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westwind El (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 601 students, 71% FRL); Heritage Middle (math 47% / reading 59%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 766 students, 42% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.69%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-38,681
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-55,973
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax from tax record: −$326 /mo · $3,912/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,809

Max offer price $189,381

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $24	+0% $-31	+5% $-86	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-101	+0% $-31	+5% $39	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $18	base $-31	+0.5pp $-82	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6927 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,599	$0.99	23d	1	0.08mi
1409 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.39mi
7216 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,700	$0.98	45d	1	0.48mi
7105 14th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	23d	1	0.51mi
2612 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,775	$1.11	15d	1	0.56mi
2625 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	45d	1	0.61mi
2801 Trenton Ave Unit LO Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,799	$1.04	23d	1	0.62mi
1003 Oshkosh Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	15d	1	0.72mi
6813 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,550	$1.07	23d	1	0.83mi
2911 Urbana Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,800	$1.24	23d	1	0.87mi
1106 Kline Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,350	$1.06	23d	1	0.88mi
6521 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,795	$0.96	45d	1	0.89mi
6333 29th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,350	$1.28	15d	1	0.90mi
6513 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,750	$1.02	45d	1	0.91mi
7324 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	0.93mi
6505 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,600	$0.98	15d	1	0.93mi
6306 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,200	$0.91	45d	1	0.96mi
6504 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,495	$1.00	46d	1	1.01mi
6336 9th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,650	$1.12	23d	1	1.01mi
3414 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	15d	1	1.07mi
6106 17th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,400	$0.88	45d	1	1.07mi
6724 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	45d	1	1.10mi
6806 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	1.11mi
6806 4th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,550	$0.95	45d	1	1.11mi
7222 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,935	$1.33	45d	1	1.11mi
6040 24th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1699	$1,600	$0.94	45d	1	1.15mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,729	$1.02	23d	1	1.16mi
6040 24th St Unit 33 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,600	$0.89	23d	1	1.16mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1700	$1,729	$1.02	45d	1	1.16mi
1107 Ironton Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,395	$1.21	45d	1	1.16mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1795	$1,799	$1.00	23d	1	1.16mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,650	$0.92	45d	1	1.16mi
6040 24th St Unit 16 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1600	$1,699	$1.06	15d	1	1.16mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	23d	1	1.16mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	45d	1	1.16mi
7452 8th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,075	$1.20	15d	1	1.18mi
7403 5th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,349	$1.03	45d	1	1.19mi
3518 Turner Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	45d	1	1.19mi
3701 Rochester Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	2054	$1,750	$0.85	45d	1	1.20mi
7413 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,475	$1.18	23d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $194,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,900 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $194,900 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,900 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $194,900 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    listed $194,900 Active 355-char remark

    Show marketing remark (355 chars)

    Incredible investment opportunity!! This 3-bed, 2-bath townhouse in Bushland Springs on a quiet clu-de-sac boasts high-end finishes, great condition, and prime rental potential. With 5 townhouses available in a row, it's a rare opportunity near shopping, Frenship schools, and just minutes from Texas Tech & LCU. Perfect for building your portfolio!

18. 2025-02-11
    price $199,900
19. 2020-11-23
    soldstatus
20. 2019-12-23
    soldstatus
21. 2018-11-07
    listed $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,912 · $326/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,912 · $326/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$3,912
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable loss: −$3,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $194,900 LARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $199,900 LARMLS
• 2020-11-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-11-07 Listed $180,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+43.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,912 · -8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.