187 River Rock St · Lincoln, AL 35096

$171,259

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,484 sqft · Townhouse · 130 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2,613 sqft lot Garage $115/sqft · at area comps Est $174k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and convenience. The first floor is occupied by the living area, which includes an open-concept kitchen and dining area with a welcoming family room tucked in the back. Upstairs are all three bedrooms to provide peace and privacy, including the owner's suite which comes equipped with an attached bathroom and split walk-in closets.

Key facts

• $25 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $171k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-95/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 20% / reading 48%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 853 students, 62% FRL); Lincoln High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 585 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 322 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 185d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,707 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,633
• List price: $171,259
• Delta: -1.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
171 River Rock St	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	2mo	$159,900	$108	98
81 River Rock St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$159,000	$107	96
123 River Rock St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	6mo	$159,000	$107	95
133 River Rock St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	6mo	$159,000	$107	94
143 River Rock St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	7mo	$159,000	$107	94
97 River Rock St	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	7mo	$167,299	$113	94
226 River Rock St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	1mo	$170,000	$115	73
216 River Rock St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	2mo	$179,000	$121	72
29 River Rock St	0.56mi	3/2.5	1,484 (0%)	10mo	$179,000	$121	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $19,801
• Equity at exit: $76,616

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $71,727
• Equity at exit: $117,773

Cash invested: $47,953 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $184,150 ($123/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -5.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$898
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$214 /mo · $2,569/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $170,117

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $51	+0% $-8	+5% $-67	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-68	+0% $-8	+5% $52	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $78	-0.5pp $36	base $-8	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,815
• Closing costs: $5,138
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
234 Highland View Dr Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,695	$1.00	10d	1	0.71mi
9 Taylor Ct Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,395	$0.94	184d	1	0.97mi
14 Maple Leaf Dr Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1457	$1,395	$0.96	184d	1	0.99mi
220 Elm Way Lincoln, AL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,675	$1.00	184d	1	1.07mi
211 Driftwood LN Lincoln, AL	3.0	2.5	1484	$1,400	$0.94	51d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance available
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $300HOA covers common grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entryDriveway parking1 garage space
• Utilities: Public waterConnected sewerElectric water heaterUnderground utilitiesInternet service available
• Home design: Townhome/attached property with 2 levelsNew construction (completed)One-side brick and vinyl siding constructionEntry faces front
• Construction: Slab foundationBuilt as new construction1 side brick with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porchOpen patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher (built-in)DisposalBuilt-in microwaveElectric stove
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on upper levelAdditional bedrooms on upper level
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomTub/shower comboMaster bath on upper level
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Smooth ceilingsRecessed lightingLaminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper levelWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupPull-down attic

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $171,259 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $171,259 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $171,259 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   price $171,259 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $174,942 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $174,942 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $174,942 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $174,942 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $174,942 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $174,942 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $174,942 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $174,942 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $174,942 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $174,942 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-10-25
    days on market $174,942 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $174,942 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $174,942 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $174,942 Active 113 DOM
19. 2026-10-22
    days on market $174,942 Active 112 DOM
20. 2026-10-21
    pricedays on marketlisting id $174,942 Active 111 DOM
21. 2026-10-20
    days on market $176,784 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    days on market $176,784 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $176,784 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $176,784 Active 106 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    price $176,784 Active 105 DOM
26. 2026-10-16
    days on market $179,546 Active 105 DOM
27. 2026-10-15
    days on market $179,546 Active 104 DOM
28. 2026-10-14
    days on market $179,546 Active 103 DOM
29. 2026-10-13
    days on market $179,546 Active 102 DOM
30. 2026-10-12
    days on market $179,546 Active 101 DOM
31. 2026-10-11
    days on market $179,546 Active 100 DOM
32. 2026-10-10
    days on market $179,546 Active 99 DOM
33. 2026-10-09
    days on market $179,546 Active 98 DOM
34. 2026-10-08
    days on market $179,546 Active 97 DOM
35. 2026-10-07
    days on market $179,546 Active 96 DOM
36. 2026-10-06
    days on market $179,546 Active 95 DOM
37. 2026-10-05
    days on market $179,546 Active 94 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $179,546 Active 93 DOM
39. 2026-10-04
    days on market $179,546 Active 92 DOM
40. 2026-10-02
    days on market $179,546 Active 91 DOM
41. 2026-10-01
    days on market $179,546 Active 90 DOM
42. 2026-09-30
    days on market $179,546 Active 89 DOM
43. 2026-09-29
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $179,546 Active 88 DOM
44. 2026-07-25
    statusdays on market $170,544 Pending 111 DOM
45. 2026-07-23
    days on market $170,544 Active 110 DOM
46. 2026-07-22
    days on market $170,544 Active 109 DOM
47. 2026-07-21
    days on market $170,544 Active 108 DOM
48. 2026-07-18
    days on market $170,544 Active 105 DOM
49. 2026-07-16
    days on market $170,544 Active 103 DOM
50. 2026-07-16
    days on market $170,544 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,593
• − Property taxes: −$2,569
• − Insurance: −$856
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$4,982
• Taxable loss: −$2,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$715
• After-tax cash flow: $621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern conveniences ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lincoln Elementary School F AL #311/627 Nat'l #24,299/41,679 High Lincoln High School F AL #169/305 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, AL
• County: Talladega · 78,905 people
• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201
• Household income: $74,650
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own

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Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance available
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $300HOA covers common grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with front entryDriveway parking1 garage space
• Utilities: Public waterConnected sewerElectric water heaterUnderground utilitiesInternet service available
• Home design: Townhome/attached property with 2 levelsNew construction (completed)One-side brick and vinyl siding constructionEntry faces front
• Construction: Slab foundationBuilt as new construction1 side brick with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porchOpen patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher (built-in)DisposalBuilt-in microwaveElectric stove
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on upper levelAdditional bedrooms on upper level
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroomTub/shower comboMaster bath on upper level
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral cooling
• Interior features: Smooth ceilingsRecessed lightingLaminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on upper levelWasher hookupElectric dryer hookupPull-down attic

Price history

-0.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $173,209 Zillow
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $177,650 Zillow
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $181,150 Zillow
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $179,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $176,150 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $176,650 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $174,150 Greater Alabama MLS