4111 164th St SW #23 · North Lynnwood, WA 98087

$174,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 257 Days on market

Built 1976 10 ac lot Est $161k · 8% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to Comfort in this 55+ Community! This move-in ready 3-bedroom home features a brand new furnace and inviting indoor-outdoor living. Relax on your private patio or cozy up on the small deck. Need space? Enjoy an 8’x10’ lighted shed for extra storage and a charming detached shed ideal for an art studio or personal office. A tandem 2-car covered carport keeps vehicles sheltered year-round. The pet-friendly community welcomes dogs under 40 lbs and cats, with RV parking and storage options available. Located near Alderwood Mall, with easy access to I-5 and 405 for shopping, dining, and commuting convenience. A place to settle in and feel at home!

Key facts

• Lighted shed
• Tandem carport
• Rv parking

Tags

• BRAND NEW FURNACE
• PRIVATE PATIO
• LIGHTED SHED
• DETACHED SHED
• TANDEM CARPORT
• RV PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.4% in North Lynnwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#6 in WA, #107 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Edmonds School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #53 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 257 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $153,956 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 257 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.30%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,280
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4111 164th St SW #23	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$175,000	$122	100
4111 164th St SW #21	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	24mo	$280,000	$194	80
4111 164th St SW #31	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	16mo	$119,950	$78	76
4111 164th St SW #2	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	11mo	$139,950	$112	63
4111 164th St SW #17	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	18mo	$80,000	$64	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $30,195
• Equity at exit: $26,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $89,278
• Equity at exit: $15,126

Cash invested: $48,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98087

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,611 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $962/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $992

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $174,950

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,738
• Closing costs: $5,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4217 164th St SW Unit A204 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,450	$2.23	43d	1	0.11mi
3805 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$2,295	$2.72	2d	5	0.20mi
15914 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$2,159	$2.32	2d	10	0.26mi
3711 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,533	$3.00	1d	7	0.27mi
2510 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$3,095	$3.10	1d	1	0.32mi
15700 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$2,343	$2.49	2d	1	0.33mi
16419 Spruce Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	946	$2,550	$2.70	2d	1	0.33mi
16104 36th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	761	$2,099	$2.76	3d	6	0.33mi
16419 Spruce Way Unit H4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	43d	1	0.34mi
4109 156th St SW Unit B4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	985	$1,995	$2.03	43d	1	0.35mi
4109 156th St SW Unit A3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	988	$1,895	$1.92	24d	1	0.35mi
16111 36th Ave W Unit D4 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	4.0	1838	$3,700	$2.01	43d	1	0.36mi
3333 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1048	$2,518	$2.40	3d	20	0.39mi
4525 164th St SW Lynnwood, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,609	$2.39	1d	13	0.41mi
15713 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1145	$2,395	$2.09	2d	1	0.47mi
15713 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	940	$2,000	$2.13	24d	1	0.47mi
16318 48th Ave W Edmonds, WA	3.0	1.0	1780	$2,850	$1.60	18d	1	0.47mi
16529 48th Ave W Unit A Edmonds, WA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,500	$2.29	24d	1	0.51mi
16908 River Rock Dr Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1701	$3,750	$2.20	43d	1	0.55mi
16200 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$3,019	$3.86	1d	33	0.57mi
16003 Admiralty Way Lynnwood, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1156	$2,187	$1.89	1d	5	0.63mi
16604 48th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	890	$2,550	$2.87	3d	9	0.63mi
3116 164th St SW #2211 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,475	$2.25	5d	1	0.68mi
14925 44th Ave W Unit B3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.5	1419	$3,000	$2.11	2d	1	0.69mi
16308 52nd Ave W Unit 4 Edmonds, WA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	11d	1	0.72mi
3406 151st Pl SW Unit Na Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.5	1418	$3,059	$2.16	1d	1	0.73mi
15001 35th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$2,319	$2.62	5d	15	0.79mi
17314 44th Ave W Unit C Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	18d	1	0.81mi
3717 148th St SW Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,912	$2.21	2d	6	0.88mi
14713 47th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1265	$2,975	$2.35	10d	1	0.89mi
4902 148th St SW Edmonds, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	801	$2,221	$2.77	1d	10	0.90mi
3626 Shelby Rd #2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.5	1360	$2,600	$1.91	2d	1	0.93mi
16723 Alderwood Mall Pkwy Unit A6 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	3.0	1673	$3,350	$2.00	24d	1	0.96mi
17529 44th Ave W Lynnwood, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	3d	1	0.96mi
4020 Shelby Rd Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.5	1523	$3,400	$2.23	43d	1	1.01mi
5226 149th St SW Edmonds, WA	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,550	$1.82	1d	1	1.03mi
4432 176th St SW Unit 3 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	43d	1	1.07mi
4432 176th St SW Unit 2 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	24d	1	1.07mi
4428 176th St SW Unit 4 Lynnwood, WA	2.0	2.0	1004	$2,195	$2.19	24d	1	1.07mi
4702 176th St SW Lynnwood, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	886	$1,925	$2.17	2d	8	1.08mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-07
   price $174,950
3. 2025-07-31
   listed $184,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $962 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,715 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$752/yr (+$63/mo · 78.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,800
• − Property taxes: −$962
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,506
• − Management: −$2,506
• − Depreciation: −$5,089
• Taxable income: $9,591
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,302
• After-tax cash flow: $9,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edmonds School District
• NCES district ID: 5302400
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $67,451
• Composite: 53.94/100
• National rank: #3026
• State rank: #53 of 291 in WA

Livability — North Lynnwood

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #107

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lynnwood, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• City population: 40,607
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,796
• Household income: $106,693
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2303.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Asian 20% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 8% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.54%
• Current HPI: 320.6888
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-5.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Price Changed $174,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Listed $184,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $962 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.